Recap
August is nearing its end and incredibly for the entire month, ES has only put in two consecutive green days on one occasion. The latest attempt began on Friday, and as readers recall, I got long at 4385 based on my core, highest win rate trading pattern - the failed breakdown.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
World News
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures, and provide context to the daily price action. They are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the intraday levels in the below plan level to level, one level at a time, one move at a time, then resetting bias. These are not comprehensive.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4441 (major), 4430, 4424 (major), 4409-13 (major), 4398, 4387-90, 4376 (major), 4360, 4347-52 (major), 4339, 4327, 4318-20 (major), 4312, 4300 (major), 4287 (major), 4278, 4266 (major), 4241, 4225-30 (major)
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4448, 4454 (major), 4466, 4474-76 (major), 4487-93 (major), 4500, 4513-16 (major), 4523, 4528, 4538 (major), 4545, 4556 (major), 4565-68 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case: Unchanged. I posted something very simple all last week. Bulls control above 4408, and bears control below. Since we reclaim 4408 on Friday (plus the failed breakdown), bulls control. Generally, the bull case from here looks something like base more under 4448, then take the run up the lvls to 4454, 4466, then 4474-76. Dip there, then onto 4513.
Bear case: Unchanged. Loss of 4408 is the first big warning for bulls. The sell trigger remains the same as Friday, which is the failure of 4376. I’d short this, but as always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there to drain demand, then I’d look short 4373 for the next leg down. Level to level profit takes as always, but seeing 4320 would not shock me.
Wrap Up
In summary, my general lean is that we can base more above 4424 then run to 4466, 4474-76. If 4424 fails, we retest 4408, and the loss of that is a big warning for bulls. 4376 fail starts the next trend leg down.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
August is nearing its end and incredibly for the entire month, ES has only put in two consecutive green days on one occasion. The latest attempt began on Friday, and as readers recall, I got long at 4385 based on my core, highest win rate trading pattern - the failed breakdown.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
World News
- Chinese markets were strongly higher overnight on reports of more stimulus as state banks lower mortgage rates.
- European Union announces new expansion plans.
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures, and provide context to the daily price action. They are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the intraday levels in the below plan level to level, one level at a time, one move at a time, then resetting bias. These are not comprehensive.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4441 (major), 4430, 4424 (major), 4409-13 (major), 4398, 4387-90, 4376 (major), 4360, 4347-52 (major), 4339, 4327, 4318-20 (major), 4312, 4300 (major), 4287 (major), 4278, 4266 (major), 4241, 4225-30 (major)
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4448, 4454 (major), 4466, 4474-76 (major), 4487-93 (major), 4500, 4513-16 (major), 4523, 4528, 4538 (major), 4545, 4556 (major), 4565-68 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case: Unchanged. I posted something very simple all last week. Bulls control above 4408, and bears control below. Since we reclaim 4408 on Friday (plus the failed breakdown), bulls control. Generally, the bull case from here looks something like base more under 4448, then take the run up the lvls to 4454, 4466, then 4474-76. Dip there, then onto 4513.
Bear case: Unchanged. Loss of 4408 is the first big warning for bulls. The sell trigger remains the same as Friday, which is the failure of 4376. I’d short this, but as always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there to drain demand, then I’d look short 4373 for the next leg down. Level to level profit takes as always, but seeing 4320 would not shock me.
Wrap Up
In summary, my general lean is that we can base more above 4424 then run to 4466, 4474-76. If 4424 fails, we retest 4408, and the loss of that is a big warning for bulls. 4376 fail starts the next trend leg down.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
