ES: close to a bottom?

2022年2月15日

Market is doing wild swing today, mainly driven by all kinds of news. There is no real direction or trend, and best trade for today is probably intraday scalp. Anyone who tried swing trading most likely would fail, well at least that's true for me. Put that away, let's think about what would be the likely paths for near future. IMO, we are very close to a bottom if it's not hit already. However, in order to make a trend reversal, we need to see higher high/higher low instead of lower high/lower low, and that would make things tricky and can signal different paths. So what I can see are two paths:

1) If we remain below 4420, we are still within some kind of triangle, and this point to immediate break down, probably tonight/tomorrow morning into lower levels. If this is playing, 4300 range would be a good target as it's the 76.4% retracement. We will hopefully then reverse sharply to the upside from there.
2) If we somehow can break above 4430 tonight, there are still quite a few resistance zones above that, 4450~4455 is the nearest one, followed by 4490~4500. I think one of these zones will cap whatever immediate rally and give us pullback tomorrow, which is the most common pattern the day before Fed day or Fed Minutes day.

Wed is Fed meeting minutes release date, and everyone is watching for that. During the past few days, market are hammered by all kinds of news, fast rate increase, Russian about to invade Ukraine, etc. IMO, they are all bullshit, and this time it would be a sell the rumor/buy the news event. We would strong rally either directly after that, or the next day. Still looking for 4640~4680 before end of month, ideally early next week.

2022年2月15日

註釋

Market reaching 4450~4455 zone, this is the first test, but no matter what, I expect market to pullback from somewhere, and could give back most of the overnight gain if not all and retest yesterday range, take some hedge puts if you are long.