Where is the santa rally?

2021年12月21日

ES cleared 4570 zone yesterday and reached 38.2% retracement of the whole drop at 4605.5. Also the market strictly follows the fractal of Sep16~Sep20 this year so far, which is also around a quad witching day. My primary view of the market is it will face resistance in 4600~4620 zone, and drop toward 4553~4539 today/tomorrow, then we can start the santa rally this year. A sustained break of 4620 will force me change my view and leaning toward we are in a santa rally to 4700+ already. Bigger point of view also tracking to see if end of 2015 fractal is in play, which may suggest the ES will go to 4700+ once again before a big dump early next year. Trigger point of view, omicron news could hit the market any time, so it's hard to tell when could be the turning point, but Fed minutes releasing date of 01/05/22 is worth watching.

2021年12月21日

註釋

holding 4560 and reaching above overnight high would be bullish and shift odds to low is in and going for 4700 next, ideally still take more time today/tomorrow to print a higher low for a more solid base.

2021年12月21日

註釋

RTY leading up is always bullish, but RTY is more volatile and until it can set up a sustained trend, it would be hard to trust its movement, minimally it needs a sustained break above 2190, but above 2225 (premarket high of last Thursday) would give more confidence on trend shift.

2021年12月21日

註釋

If ES cannot turn down before close, then watch for next major resistance around 4660, a pullback from there to 4600 makes sense, unlikely to make a sustained break below 4600 tomorrow as there is huge open interest of ES 4600 puts tomorrow.