The S&P 500 futures appear to be moving up to the next level - the channel top of which represents 4255 (assuming this happens in the next week). An overshoot similar to September 2020 would take us to about 4350 (assuming it happens soon). Finally, VVIX (which typically precedes the VIX) is not quite at the level that has preceded other recent corrections - even the shallow 70 point correction we had last week.
It is probably safe to go long here for at least one more day with tight stops no lower than 4164 (we spent 3 days probing this level from the bottom). In an ideal, clean, easy-to-trade world we'd hit overshoot to 4300+ by Friday and then correct hard the first week of May - if only trading were that easy! Just watch the VVIX, and bail on this trade once it reaches the area inside the two lines unless you've developed a substantial profit cushion by then (if you can't see it on your screen, the bottom line is approximately 110).
It is probably safe to go long here for at least one more day with tight stops no lower than 4164 (we spent 3 days probing this level from the bottom). In an ideal, clean, easy-to-trade world we'd hit overshoot to 4300+ by Friday and then correct hard the first week of May - if only trading were that easy! Just watch the VVIX, and bail on this trade once it reaches the area inside the two lines unless you've developed a substantial profit cushion by then (if you can't see it on your screen, the bottom line is approximately 110).
評論:
Reached target 1 - 4250 - and dropped just like that.