ETC Post-Mortem on the 4Hr
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ETC on the 4hr – Post-Mortem.
In my last ETC analysis, I stated, “I would wait to see if we get closer to the primary trendline before considering entering ETC or adding more. We are trading in a box about, $2.20 wide. The price action seems very resistant to levels just above the .50 fib level ($.4.807). I am a no go unless we can test the primary trendline (around $4.54) …”
If you follow me, I am constantly bringing your attention on how to guesstimate a breakout move on the indicated timeframe on a price distribution (formation/pattern) being analyzed. This should start becoming second nature to the reader, and the information can be used to set buys and sells. What is interesting about the way ETC’s price action was distributing was giving us clues into BTC’s future price action.
I had expressed in my prior ETC analysis that the price action was having difficulty staying above the .50 fib level, about $4.807. Because the price action had moved parabolic away from the primary trendline, I had a feeling that this current bullish move might fail and ETC could decouple from the broader bullish market and head south nearer the primary trendline, or breakdown altogether.
Note, the 2 vertical yellow doubled arrowed lines of equal length on this chart. As I have indicated in the past, whenever we enter a recognized price pattern, you can use the width of that price pattern to guesstimate the length of a volatility move on the first candle of that high volume move. This could be a move north or south. These can help you set buy orders or sell orders for the reasons I have explained many times in the past. Unfortunately, the price action prior to failing had very few tells, so it's just a reference for learning more about volatility and high volume price action. Can you smell price manipulation?
What’s so BIZARRE about ETC’s price distribution in this chart is that the price action fell right out of its most recent high: where is the volatility squeeze, I so often refer you too in the current price action? In fact, we were completing an inverse H&S pattern right before the price action fell right out of the sky! So, what were the clues to the price failure? This chart was very basic, but it was using two very powerful tools to substantiate support and resistance, the Fib and the Volume Profile, and together we got a clue into the price rejection as to why we didn't make new highs. If you can see it, kudos to you, and have just demonstrated you understand how the Volume Profile and Fib lines work together. If you can’t see it, no worries, I am going to direct you to it below.
Whenever I am using the Volume Profile, I am trying to substantiate my support and resistance levels, so I need the aid of the Fib lines. Knowing where to draw your fib lines properly is done with the help of the volume profile and the amount of data you are charting on the screen. To keep this analysis short, I am going to assume you understand what a volume profile is and why it’s so powerful. I typically remove the volume profile from my analysis to reduce clutter but have recently begun to keep it in my charts.
We failed at a High-Volume Node denoted by the green right arrow at the .618 Fib price level right above the .50 fib level I was concerned about. We fell right back the Point of Control. Why didn’t we just fail at the .50 fib level? Because, the major players took their profit on the nearest HVN and reversed the price action by shorting ETC – a structured price failure. Notice the price fell right back to the point of control! The fib and volume profile used together are a very powerful combination and when you have a solid understanding of how they work together, there is almost no need for other indicators. So, where may price go from here? when the volatility move has been squeezed out, the price should fade towards a high-volume node and begin fading slightly north, or slightly south from that point.
*1-HVN High Volume Nodes (HVN ) are peaks in volume at or around a price level.
*2-POC Point of Control ( POC ) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume
If you think my analysis his helpful, give me a thumbs up and consider following me for more messy charts and ambiguous charting! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!
Best,
Biff
In my last ETC analysis, I stated, “I would wait to see if we get closer to the primary trendline before considering entering ETC or adding more. We are trading in a box about, $2.20 wide. The price action seems very resistant to levels just above the .50 fib level ($.4.807). I am a no go unless we can test the primary trendline (around $4.54) …”
If you follow me, I am constantly bringing your attention on how to guesstimate a breakout move on the indicated timeframe on a price distribution (formation/pattern) being analyzed. This should start becoming second nature to the reader, and the information can be used to set buys and sells. What is interesting about the way ETC’s price action was distributing was giving us clues into BTC’s future price action.
I had expressed in my prior ETC analysis that the price action was having difficulty staying above the .50 fib level, about $4.807. Because the price action had moved parabolic away from the primary trendline, I had a feeling that this current bullish move might fail and ETC could decouple from the broader bullish market and head south nearer the primary trendline, or breakdown altogether.
Note, the 2 vertical yellow doubled arrowed lines of equal length on this chart. As I have indicated in the past, whenever we enter a recognized price pattern, you can use the width of that price pattern to guesstimate the length of a volatility move on the first candle of that high volume move. This could be a move north or south. These can help you set buy orders or sell orders for the reasons I have explained many times in the past. Unfortunately, the price action prior to failing had very few tells, so it's just a reference for learning more about volatility and high volume price action. Can you smell price manipulation?
What’s so BIZARRE about ETC’s price distribution in this chart is that the price action fell right out of its most recent high: where is the volatility squeeze, I so often refer you too in the current price action? In fact, we were completing an inverse H&S pattern right before the price action fell right out of the sky! So, what were the clues to the price failure? This chart was very basic, but it was using two very powerful tools to substantiate support and resistance, the Fib and the Volume Profile, and together we got a clue into the price rejection as to why we didn't make new highs. If you can see it, kudos to you, and have just demonstrated you understand how the Volume Profile and Fib lines work together. If you can’t see it, no worries, I am going to direct you to it below.
Whenever I am using the Volume Profile, I am trying to substantiate my support and resistance levels, so I need the aid of the Fib lines. Knowing where to draw your fib lines properly is done with the help of the volume profile and the amount of data you are charting on the screen. To keep this analysis short, I am going to assume you understand what a volume profile is and why it’s so powerful. I typically remove the volume profile from my analysis to reduce clutter but have recently begun to keep it in my charts.
We failed at a High-Volume Node denoted by the green right arrow at the .618 Fib price level right above the .50 fib level I was concerned about. We fell right back the Point of Control. Why didn’t we just fail at the .50 fib level? Because, the major players took their profit on the nearest HVN and reversed the price action by shorting ETC – a structured price failure. Notice the price fell right back to the point of control! The fib and volume profile used together are a very powerful combination and when you have a solid understanding of how they work together, there is almost no need for other indicators. So, where may price go from here? when the volatility move has been squeezed out, the price should fade towards a high-volume node and begin fading slightly north, or slightly south from that point.
*1-HVN High Volume Nodes (HVN ) are peaks in volume at or around a price level.
*2-POC Point of Control ( POC ) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume
If you think my analysis his helpful, give me a thumbs up and consider following me for more messy charts and ambiguous charting! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!
Best,
Biff
註釋
ETC is trading in a high-value node. It's difficult to see us fade higher. In fact, we may lose steam and get another chance at buying closer to $4.00. I don't care for ETC anyway, but if I can get better pricing, I'll pawn a few of the wife's jewelry pieces to hold a little bit more; emphasis on, "a little bit." :-)
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