Ether Trend Part III - B wave top? SHORT opportunity
已更新
Hi Again Traders! We will assess the ETHUSD:Kraken Daily chart, as part three of this series.
I view trading similar to a mental martial art. So in order to be the best trader and TA I can be, I employ a system that uses multiple disciplines to pinpoint wave count/location, trend, and price action. Just a quick rundown on what to expect: I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations. I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
LWC: Location GSC2B_SCe cycle_B: Diagonal Triangle E (D top = G)
Trend: Up; Recent pivot = G3 $390
Candlestick pattern G and G3: Red Engulfing
• G may be top and is a large red engulfing candle, which is a reversal pattern
• The formation is one candle that may represent the initial impulse or wave 1 in a new trend downwards
• G3: Red engulfing
• G3 may represent another opportunity to SHORT, but may also be a correction from the three soldiers
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .236 major retracement resistance
- C wave up (F3_G) = 1.618A (F_F2)
- Polarity line at the .236 support line of GSC1 $376.51
- Minor time and price symmetry G2_G3: 8 days up and 8.88 gfactor, indicates good pivot DOWN off of G3
- If the price can hold ABOVE the polarity line, further upward movement can be expected, otherwise, short
- Last leg extension 2x G2_G3 (third candle from the long red bottom, the first red candle) this one candle pushes the price action to G3, look at the MACD
- GSC2B_SCc (F3-G) fourth wave violations
- Three, three, three, three, three pattern
- Declining vol. & slight bearish divergence
- Death Cross
- Pitchfork 75% line may hold the downtrend OR
- If the price action can lift prices above either MA, we may touch the upper Pitchfork line, in time with G
- G good time relationship with G and G2 (see table below to verify)
- Polarity line at $362.50, this means that if the price fails to hold above this line, more price action downwards is likely for some time; G3 candle is not a good indicator for strength to hold above $362.50
- Strong resistance at .382 retracement level with larger time frame (small upper right fib)
- Notice the pitchfork, it is attracting the recent price action, most likely the price will continue to decline along this 75% pitchfork line, going down to the 50% after distribution
- G has good time relationships with D, E, and F further suggesting trend change
- Lastly, it appears that there is good short term support below current price action, which further strengthens the short term accumulation/flat trading projection
Projection/Trade Tactic
- Seems that the trend change suspected on the Weekly/monthly assessment is confirmed via
• the strong A wave engulfing candles
• strong FIB last leg extensions
• Strong time relationships on G (weekly chart)
• Strong trend range gfactors and gdegree confirmations shown below
- Some traders may be expecting a smaller Bwave triangle or one smaller push upwards to
• .5 ($400.31), or
• .618 ($421.37)
• But the time/price relationship and volume has me thinking that G3 is the high for some time
- The plan for now is to monitor this retracement off G2 upwards and wait for the B wave High, then confirm the trend change after the reactive selling, to Short C and downward.
- If you want to jump in while the price is touching the 20MA and smushed between a polarity line and strong fib resistance, set the following, but I don't necessarily recommend this, as the market may be sideways for a few more days:
- SHORT Sell at highest point on short term wave
- High risk Stop loss: $425 (1% above .618 retracement G_G2) ($390)
- Low risk Stop loss: $494 (1% above G)
- Pick your profit level based on supports below or a MA bounce
• $311 (G2 low)
• $285
• $255
• $205
• $165
• $120
• GSC2 projected bottom: $135
- Projected H may be 3rd bottom for buying
Here is the data:
GSC2B_SCc_CycleA: F_F2
GSC2B_SCc_CycleB: F2_F3
GSC2B_SCc_CycleC: F3_G
GSC2B_SCa_CycleA: G_G2
GSC2B_SCa_CycleB: G2_G3
TREND RANGE GFactor GDegree Time
F_F2 $ 163.74 12.7961 2,303.30 81
F_F3 $ 126.10 11.2294 2,021.30 106
F_G2 $ 221.24 14.8741 2,677.34 176
F2_F3 $ 37.64 6.1351 1,104.33 25
F2_G $ 236.03 15.3633 2,765.39 91
F3_G $ 273.67 16.5430 2,977.74 66
G_G2 $ 178.53 13.3615 2,405.07 4
G_G3 $ 99.57 9.9785 1,796.13 12
G2_G3 $ 78.96 8.8859 1,599.47 8
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
I view trading similar to a mental martial art. So in order to be the best trader and TA I can be, I employ a system that uses multiple disciplines to pinpoint wave count/location, trend, and price action. Just a quick rundown on what to expect: I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations. I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
LWC: Location GSC2B_SCe cycle_B: Diagonal Triangle E (D top = G)
Trend: Up; Recent pivot = G3 $390
Candlestick pattern G and G3: Red Engulfing
• G may be top and is a large red engulfing candle, which is a reversal pattern
• The formation is one candle that may represent the initial impulse or wave 1 in a new trend downwards
• G3: Red engulfing
• G3 may represent another opportunity to SHORT, but may also be a correction from the three soldiers
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .236 major retracement resistance
- C wave up (F3_G) = 1.618A (F_F2)
- Polarity line at the .236 support line of GSC1 $376.51
- Minor time and price symmetry G2_G3: 8 days up and 8.88 gfactor, indicates good pivot DOWN off of G3
- If the price can hold ABOVE the polarity line, further upward movement can be expected, otherwise, short
- Last leg extension 2x G2_G3 (third candle from the long red bottom, the first red candle) this one candle pushes the price action to G3, look at the MACD
- GSC2B_SCc (F3-G) fourth wave violations
- Three, three, three, three, three pattern
- Declining vol. & slight bearish divergence
- Death Cross
- Pitchfork 75% line may hold the downtrend OR
- If the price action can lift prices above either MA, we may touch the upper Pitchfork line, in time with G
- G good time relationship with G and G2 (see table below to verify)
- Polarity line at $362.50, this means that if the price fails to hold above this line, more price action downwards is likely for some time; G3 candle is not a good indicator for strength to hold above $362.50
- Strong resistance at .382 retracement level with larger time frame (small upper right fib)
- Notice the pitchfork, it is attracting the recent price action, most likely the price will continue to decline along this 75% pitchfork line, going down to the 50% after distribution
- G has good time relationships with D, E, and F further suggesting trend change
- Lastly, it appears that there is good short term support below current price action, which further strengthens the short term accumulation/flat trading projection
Projection/Trade Tactic
- Seems that the trend change suspected on the Weekly/monthly assessment is confirmed via
• the strong A wave engulfing candles
• strong FIB last leg extensions
• Strong time relationships on G (weekly chart)
• Strong trend range gfactors and gdegree confirmations shown below
- Some traders may be expecting a smaller Bwave triangle or one smaller push upwards to
• .5 ($400.31), or
• .618 ($421.37)
• But the time/price relationship and volume has me thinking that G3 is the high for some time
- The plan for now is to monitor this retracement off G2 upwards and wait for the B wave High, then confirm the trend change after the reactive selling, to Short C and downward.
- If you want to jump in while the price is touching the 20MA and smushed between a polarity line and strong fib resistance, set the following, but I don't necessarily recommend this, as the market may be sideways for a few more days:
- SHORT Sell at highest point on short term wave
- High risk Stop loss: $425 (1% above .618 retracement G_G2) ($390)
- Low risk Stop loss: $494 (1% above G)
- Pick your profit level based on supports below or a MA bounce
• $311 (G2 low)
• $285
• $255
• $205
• $165
• $120
• GSC2 projected bottom: $135
- Projected H may be 3rd bottom for buying
Here is the data:
GSC2B_SCc_CycleA: F_F2
GSC2B_SCc_CycleB: F2_F3
GSC2B_SCc_CycleC: F3_G
GSC2B_SCa_CycleA: G_G2
GSC2B_SCa_CycleB: G2_G3
TREND RANGE GFactor GDegree Time
F_F2 $ 163.74 12.7961 2,303.30 81
F_F3 $ 126.10 11.2294 2,021.30 106
F_G2 $ 221.24 14.8741 2,677.34 176
F2_F3 $ 37.64 6.1351 1,104.33 25
F2_G $ 236.03 15.3633 2,765.39 91
F3_G $ 273.67 16.5430 2,977.74 66
G_G2 $ 178.53 13.3615 2,405.07 4
G_G3 $ 99.57 9.9785 1,796.13 12
G2_G3 $ 78.96 8.8859 1,599.47 8
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
註釋
Close up attempt for clarity
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