ETH Flag or Bearish Trend Reversal?

3月17日

As of the time of writing this ETHUSDT Is currently trading at 3483. In all disclosure I exited a long position after the rising wedge I spotted on the 4 hours on Tuesday, however I do plan to get back in. On to the analysis

As you can see above in the short-term ETH is going to be experiencing slight contraction. IF we look at the Monte Futures on the right, over the course of 5000 simulations using 2000 periods of historical data, there is a 91% chance of short-term contraction. Both the Highest average and standard deviation will be at the 3240-3260 area, which will be my entry point. This is confirmed by Lorentzian ML, MA's, and Nadaya-watson smoothers. On the upward side there is a 8.94% chance of short term rise to 3665. Additionally Medium-term trend line has been broken.

Support for Upward Movement

Monte futures showing on the daily an 84% chance of getting back to 4.2K in the next 21 days, meaning 1k profit per ETH for a 21-day vanilla trade. I'm expecting a drop to pick up tonight and we might see a reversal to the top end of a bull flag tomorrow if FIB time zones are correct. All indicators except Lorentzian are showing in the green still except a few divergences in the MACD and RSI but they have since cooled down. Looking to the left of the chart above you will see a fixed volume profile. ETH next largest volume supports are at 3240 and 2940. Those will be local support for this run, below that is a long way down at the 2.3k and $1740 ol reliable.


However, be aware all trades come with risk and require flexibility. IF we break below 3200, we are looking at 2.9k and 2.4K as entry. This could be the case due to the RSI Stochs and MACD cross and negative volume. However downward momentum hasn't been very strong this far, and the havening is coming up. Historically low performance always leading up to it and good prices after, but this next one is uncharted territory. Will update later with entry.

Happy Hunting,
-Soup Kitchen Management