Eball8
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Ethereum to at least $745

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   以太坊 / 美元
Hope you guys didn't buy into this up here. I have 3 waves counted. A near peak extension to 2.618. 3 Bearish peaks on RSI . And A daily MACD that is leveling off. Oh god!

Remember what I said on my last post, when EBall Shorts, you better get out hahaha

Very confident this happens. If it goes above $1000 again keep the trade open. it's not going far. Guys there is a 90% chance this happens even if it goes higher. This was a VERY easy count and all the indicators confirm it for me.
交易進行
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This is where I think the highest peak could get, If we haven't seen the top already. It's just hit resistance on RSI. If it breaks that white slope, then I think it can peak at that green line. If it fails, and breaks the gold RSI line, then it's going down for sure. This is the 3 hour chart.
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This is the 1 hour chart.
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See guys, It's failing to break this resistance. That RSI resistance is ON ALL timelines. Watch this formation play out. It may not even get to E!
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What do you do when your resistance fails? Draw a new one! Take the support line of the bottom and draw a parallel line across the previous peak! Let's see if it works!
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HAHAHA Guys look... I have full faith in my analysis. What did I tell you all? I said that I think we could possibly peak at $1,068. It only peaked 3.5% above that. Right now we are on full extension of this final wave. Our MACD is flat and this thing is coming down. Targets are still the same.

Guys, when I call these trades know that I'm very sure. BUT that being said, I will NOT give advice on when to buy and sell. I shouldn't have mentioned "you can start shorting now" in the first post, that was my mistake. You have to be able to read my charts and do your own analysis. Overtime I will give you all the tools to do that as Phil gave me. But you must READ everything that I post, and know what I'm talking about to get an understanding of this analysis.

I will upload a post on how to manage risk either today or tomorrow so you all can trade confidently while making risk to reward ratios as high as possible.

A lesson here. As a trader, NEVER give up on your trade. That doesn't mean to NOT use stop losses. But if something goes past your expectations, keep at it! There is a LIMIT to everything, and you must use your judgement to recognize that. These 3 hour candles are powerful. I think they've reached their limit, but like ALWAYS i could be wrong. There is NO guarantee. But when I post these trades, they are HIGHLY likely trades that put MYSELF in the best positions.

Patience is key. You have to have balls of steel to be a trader. Others will freak out, me, not so much. We are learning together!! Keep at it guys!
評論: Remember that during this peaks, Bulls will give their last pushes, the price still may go higher from here. DONT FOLLOW ME BLINDLY.
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I'm continuing to go through my thought process. We may see something like this here. The best traders always analyze and look for trends. We never lose patience, and we never panic. I sense panic in the comments HAHAHA. To be honest though, I'm very flattered that you guys expect my predictions to be EXACTLY on point! Like that is really a very big compliment to me, it tells me that I'm doing something right.

You don't become a millionaire overnight, especially not in the market.
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Hope you guys didn't fomo right there. But I HOPE you guys took profit! Anyways this is an awesome teaching point! So here is an example of candle stick analysis. Notice the 3 large block candles with little to no candle wick. Those are called 3 white soldiers. It is an indication of run exhaustion. There are very likely to be followed by a downtrend.

Another update will be coming on overall progress. Obviously I made a mistake somewhere. But this is a learning point! I go back an analyze the situation so I don't make the same mistake in the future. I will always have losses, but I try to win more than I lose. On the bright side, this is STILL not a loss until It just never hits my target of $745, because I said AT LEAST.
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Am I panicking? No haha. I just messed up, it happens. This is why you don't follow my posts blinding. But because I am a trader, and NOT a FOMO'r. I stick to my analysis and re-evalute any situation that goes ways where I don't expect it to. If you think I'm always going to be right, YOU are foolish! I didn't evaluate my situation as closely as I should of. And I saw something unusual that threw my wave count off.

I THINK this thing has potential to go higher, BUT i'm still bearish on where this will end up. It will fall. Here are the new targets. It's now LESS likely to hit my $745 target, but surprisingly still possible. Once I write my Risk Management post I will show you all how to turn situations like these into small losses, BACK to big gains! Personally I lost NO money here, I'm fine. But those that follow blindly and don't do you're own analysis, you ALWAYS are at risk, and I WILL outperform you. I am willing to help those that are willing to LEARN. I will NOT help those who just ask when to buy and sell.

Another update will come with the rare occasion that I missed.
評論:
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評論: So Ethereum has hit my first revised target. It has support at the $976 area around the 55 EMA. I don't think it will bounce like other alts will because it has lost the majority of its upwards momentum. Bitcoin was definitely the accelerator to this, so we will see what happens!
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Remember, when I call for these shorts, I'm just calling for downtrends. These targets will not be hit overnight, they will take time. In the past we have always driven off of the 55 EMA. So it's possible to do that again here, but not necessarily likely. The 55 EMA is right by that last "possible" target.

This is what not giving up looks like! Don't be afraid of failure. Was I overconfident on the original post? Absolutely, but I haven't lost my confidence.

If the Daily MACD stays on a bearish divergence, then this downtrend is highly likely to continue. We have support on the Daily MACD at 39. We DONT want it to go below that point!
評論: Warning! Ethereum has pushed back up. Daily MACD is no longer leveled/diverging. Possible it continues upwards!
評論: Alright guys. SUPER wrong on this one! Has passed all of my expectations and I don't think there is any way it's gonna hit my $745 target. Officially an L. Sorry, first loss in a while. Will continue to study and try to make sure this doesn't happen again. But hey, losses happen. Can't be perfect, we move on.
交易結束:達到停損點
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Alright guys. I've been wrong many times on this thing, so just take this with a grain of salt. But man I just don't know how much higher this thing can push. This really wasn't a healthy rise up for Ethereum, and it's going to need a big correction. I don't think it'll hit the .618 fib level, but I expect a longgg WYZ correction that will probably take months to finish, like the last big correction after it hit $380.

If you are still in, good luck!
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Guys... This may be a bad time to say this. But it came $10 away from my $745 target... Hahaha I'm so sorry but I thought that that was hilarious. Even after all of that... wow
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Here's How I think this correction may play out. I'm not quite sure if it will go lower, but I'm basing this off of the previous correction that looks similar to this first initial drop. I think we may form a triangle, and I think that $754 mark MIGHT be the lowest we'll see, but it is hard to tell.

I think in the short-term we get this nice rebound, but I think it'll be rejected fairly soon. This is a hard one to tell where it may go in the future.

I'd like to note that I was just laughing because I did NOT think it was going to come close to my target after it spewed up to $1400. That was a complete surprise to me, but Bitcoin helped me out on that one lol.
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Hmmm.. Not likely that we reach a new ATH. Would watch closely here, but i think we eventually fall and reach these support zone. If we break this resistance, my first target wold be at the green line. Both instances directed by the arrows are possible here.
So where to from here man? Everything looks like it's on a downward trend, especially as ETH is exactly replicating BTC so whats the likelihood of hitting that $745 in the next 24 hours? And secondly - what's your view on this fork that coming in 2 days. Some are saying ETH will tank? Some scary shit right now. My brain says to buy up positions as it keeps falling but that's only good if it all comes back up again.
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well done, i thought you were totally full of shit when I started reading your posts a couple weeks back.
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@Benx6, Hahaha. No I really got it wrong, though. I didn't expect Ethereum to reach as high as it did. But it had this correction coming regardless, my starting point was just off.
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Maybe almost to 745, but it had not a think to do with ETH. Just BTC crashing
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@webmi, Nothing to do with TA
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@webmi, No you are absolutely right! Thats why I thought it was funny hahaha
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It's all because of the fork for ETH Zero coming January 19. After that ETH will fall like a rock thrown from a plane.
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Eball8 PRO Jerrybels
@Jerrybels, Holy crap hahaha. Thats awful. People pump and dump so hard for the forks. Thanks for that note!
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@Eball8, Thanks for the good work :)
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@Eball8, Well seems like even with the fork coming it didn't hold the current market fall :) You were right
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