ETHUSD: Retrace Offers Insight Into Short Squeeze.

ETHUSD update: Across the board these coins have attempted to retrace as they follow BTC's lead. Unlike BTC, this market has managed to break a bearish trend line. This is the first step toward change, but just like BTC, must meet certain criteria before it is reasonable to expect a more significant bullish move.

Clearly, everything is following BTC and all have similar price action. Now that the first bearish trend line is broken, the next thing that needs to happen is the break of the 451 level (.382 of recent bearish swing). As long as this level is not compromised, bearish momentum is still in play. This is why I emphasized in my previous BTC report that it is risky to buy the initial lower high, unless you don't mind taking some pain.

The pain comes in the form of the next retrace or test to see if the bears are at full capacity (market establishes a lower low). If a new low cannot be established, then that is a sign that a short squeeze is likely. Being that the short interest is at an all time high in BTC, (the crowd is never right at tops and bottoms), it is just a matter of catalyst that can turn this market around fast.

Even if the 451 level does not break first, this market can still present a double bottom or failed low situation which would offer great buying opportunities in my opinion. The 374 support (old resistance/new support) and the 344 reversal zone boundary are the levels to watch for these two bullish scenarios respectively. A decent short squeeze can take this market back up to the low 500's to test the broader bearish trend line which can serve as a good potential target to measure reward/risk from.

In summary, buying into lows of a bearish environment can be tricky because there is no way to know if the low is in or if this market is going to push a new low. No matter what the trend, a retrace always presents a test that can be used to gauge the strength or lack of strength of the participants that are affecting price the most. Keep in mind, not all new lows are created equal. A failed low is a condition where price goes slightly lower which makes it look like the trend is continuing, only to reverse quickly which is often a sign of hidden strength and means that there are not enough new bears joining the party. Also remember that a bottom is a process, not an isolated event, which means patience often pays in these situations. If this market is bottoming here, there will be plenty of opportunities to get in at attractive reward/risk ratios.

Questions and comments welcome (to see a very broad view of this market with a wave count, see my chart on S.C.)