Multiple time frame MACD strategies updated - 77% success
已更新
I've backtested this one over 200 times on multiple time frames and find using the higher timeframe to identify trend and weed out the false signals it works pretty well.
HOW TO IMPLEMENT :
Chart setup.
Trading rush EMA - 200 period - timeframe same as chart - search in indicators for this one. Note at the bottom.
EMA -MA crossover - set to 20 period MA, 50 period EMA. I use the crossover indicator made by HPotter but you could just as easily set these up as separate EMA and MA on the chart, which is what I do on my Binance charts.
Lower time frame MACD - timeframe same as the charts, I take out the histogram as I don't find this useful, and put a horizontal line on the zero.
Higher time frame MACD - Timeframe set to at least 4x the lower time frame, 1min-5min, 5min-30min, 15min-60min. etc etc.
Using the Higher time frame MACD to identify the current momentum in the price. If the MACD line is below the signal line then you are either focusing on taking short trades when it goes below the 200 period EMA, or you stay out of the long signals until the MACD crosses back above the signal line.
This goes the same for the MACD being above the line, if the macd is above the signal line and your price action is above the 200 EMA then you are looking for the next long opportunity on the shorter time frame MACD, if you're price action is below the 200 period EMA then you are waiting for the higher time frame MACD to cross back, or the price action to come back above the 200 EMA.
LONG SETUP :
Higher time frame MACD is above the signal line
Price action is above the 200 period EMA
lower time frame MACD crosses over the signal line going up. (best practice is to keep these crossovers below the zero line, but on shorter time frames it still works on either side of zero)
EMA-MA crossover candles are green, 20 period MA is above 50 period EMA.
Stop loss set at last swing low, or flat bottom. If these are below the 200 EMA, set your stop loss just past the 200 EMA.
Price target 1.5xR.
SHORT SETUP :
Higher time frame MACD is below the signal line
Price action is below the 200 period EMA
lower time frame MACD crosses over the signal line going down. (best practice is to keep these crossovers above the zero line, but on shorter time frames it still works on either side of zero)
EMA-MA crossover candles are red, 20 period MA is below 50 period EMA.
Stop loss set at last swing high, or flat top. If these are above the 200 EMA, set your stop loss just past the 200 EMA.
Price target 1.5xR.
BACK TEST RESULTS ON ALL TIME FRAMES. WORKING WITH A 1.5xR.
15min chart - 15min & 60min MACD - 68 wins 48 losses - 58% success - 18% profit on original account.
5min chart - 5min and 30min MACD - 60wins 30 losses - 66% success - 20% profit on original account
1min chart - 1min and 5min MACD - 97wins 53 losses - 64% success - 30% profit on original account.
Other findings during backtesting -
Potential of over 1.5xR
1.5xR - 27% chance of 1.5xR and nothing more.
2xR - 18% chance of 2xR and nothing more
3xR - 9% chance of 3xR and nothing more
over 4xR - 45% chance of over 4xR.
Whilst I try to stick to a solid 1.5xR where I can, you can see from these stats that actually there is a 72% chance of getting more than 1.5xR on this strategy, this all comes down to your appetite for risk and volatility within the market, this would effectively mean that 27% of your trades could potentially go from a winning trade at 1.5xR to a losing trade, but 72% of your trades would return more than 2xR, so it would be worth weighing up these risks when setting up this strategy as this would reduce the success rate of the overall strategy but will alter the ROI overall, potentially for the better dependant on the outcomes.
Solid strategy and pretty simple to implement, thankyou to TRADINGRUSH for helping me understand MACD.
HOW TO IMPLEMENT :
Chart setup.
Trading rush EMA - 200 period - timeframe same as chart - search in indicators for this one. Note at the bottom.
EMA -MA crossover - set to 20 period MA, 50 period EMA. I use the crossover indicator made by HPotter but you could just as easily set these up as separate EMA and MA on the chart, which is what I do on my Binance charts.
Lower time frame MACD - timeframe same as the charts, I take out the histogram as I don't find this useful, and put a horizontal line on the zero.
Higher time frame MACD - Timeframe set to at least 4x the lower time frame, 1min-5min, 5min-30min, 15min-60min. etc etc.
Using the Higher time frame MACD to identify the current momentum in the price. If the MACD line is below the signal line then you are either focusing on taking short trades when it goes below the 200 period EMA, or you stay out of the long signals until the MACD crosses back above the signal line.
This goes the same for the MACD being above the line, if the macd is above the signal line and your price action is above the 200 EMA then you are looking for the next long opportunity on the shorter time frame MACD, if you're price action is below the 200 period EMA then you are waiting for the higher time frame MACD to cross back, or the price action to come back above the 200 EMA.
LONG SETUP :
Higher time frame MACD is above the signal line
Price action is above the 200 period EMA
lower time frame MACD crosses over the signal line going up. (best practice is to keep these crossovers below the zero line, but on shorter time frames it still works on either side of zero)
EMA-MA crossover candles are green, 20 period MA is above 50 period EMA.
Stop loss set at last swing low, or flat bottom. If these are below the 200 EMA, set your stop loss just past the 200 EMA.
Price target 1.5xR.
SHORT SETUP :
Higher time frame MACD is below the signal line
Price action is below the 200 period EMA
lower time frame MACD crosses over the signal line going down. (best practice is to keep these crossovers above the zero line, but on shorter time frames it still works on either side of zero)
EMA-MA crossover candles are red, 20 period MA is below 50 period EMA.
Stop loss set at last swing high, or flat top. If these are above the 200 EMA, set your stop loss just past the 200 EMA.
Price target 1.5xR.
BACK TEST RESULTS ON ALL TIME FRAMES. WORKING WITH A 1.5xR.
15min chart - 15min & 60min MACD - 68 wins 48 losses - 58% success - 18% profit on original account.
5min chart - 5min and 30min MACD - 60wins 30 losses - 66% success - 20% profit on original account
1min chart - 1min and 5min MACD - 97wins 53 losses - 64% success - 30% profit on original account.
Other findings during backtesting -
Potential of over 1.5xR
1.5xR - 27% chance of 1.5xR and nothing more.
2xR - 18% chance of 2xR and nothing more
3xR - 9% chance of 3xR and nothing more
over 4xR - 45% chance of over 4xR.
Whilst I try to stick to a solid 1.5xR where I can, you can see from these stats that actually there is a 72% chance of getting more than 1.5xR on this strategy, this all comes down to your appetite for risk and volatility within the market, this would effectively mean that 27% of your trades could potentially go from a winning trade at 1.5xR to a losing trade, but 72% of your trades would return more than 2xR, so it would be worth weighing up these risks when setting up this strategy as this would reduce the success rate of the overall strategy but will alter the ROI overall, potentially for the better dependant on the outcomes.
Solid strategy and pretty simple to implement, thankyou to TRADINGRUSH for helping me understand MACD.
交易進行
Been testing this strategy on shorter time frames again and found a couple of things out. I was using Hpotter's EMA - MA crossover to help identify when to enter but was finding it actually gave us some really late entries on a couple of good trades.
For ref I've moved the timeframes down to 15min for higher timeframe and 1min for lower time frame to pin point some good entries, haven't used it live yet but been papertrading it over the past 48hours and found 15 good trades and 6 failed trades, the good trades had an average 3.6xR as well which is always good.
The highest being todays ridiculous rally which is currently at 19xR, which would have double my portfolio had I traded it live. Can't complain at those odds.
With an approx 70% win rate and a multiple opportunities using the shorter time frame, it is certainly an interesting, but intensive strategy if you choose to use it.
Currently testing this strategy out on stocks and forex as well so will keep it updated.
交易進行
I thought I would set out on this strategy the NO TRADE rules that I have been testing with it that seem to work, and to be honest there are more NO TRADE rules than there are TRADE rules. #1, If the candle does not close over the 200 period EMA, NO TRADE
#2, Higher time frame MACD is under horizontal and pointing back towards the signal line.
On a short position this would look like the yellow MACD line is heading above horizontal back up slightly.
On a long trade this would look like the yellow MACD line is heading below horizontal back down slightly.
The reason for this is this shows some longer term weakness and can result in more losing trades.
#3, If a big move has already happened, then wait for the next signal, chances are you've missed the move you were waiting for and will be waiting in the negative resulting in more headache and failed trades.
#4, If higher time frame MACD crosses back over before you get a lower time frame cross then wait for next signal.
#5, Higher time frame cross wants to follow the usual rules also, a cross over heading down that happens below the zero line is weaker than one that happens above it, and the same for above, a cross heading up that happens above the zero line is weaker than one that happens below the line.
Wait for the TR-EMA to indicate a short term trend before taking signals.
#6, STOP LOSSES SHOULD BE SET PROPERLY,
especially on the first trade after a higher time frame cross over. The stop loss should be set at either the peak of when the last higher time frame crossover and the most recent higher time frame you're currently working with, or the very bottom if the last section was a short bias.
You are working on a reversal and need to give the market time to figure that out properly, or wait for the second signal once a short term trend has identified itself properly.
These are just a few of the NO TRADE situations I have found myself in, and if you ever feel confused by a trade, or it doesn't quite fit your strategy, then stay out of it.
Confusion leads to mistakes & mistakes lose money, I know it's frustrating to watch a move happen when you're not in it, especially when you know it fit 80% of the strategy but the reality is it didn't fit the strategy so wait till it does, or get a new strategy.
評論
I have also been working on an alternative entry working with the same double MACD strategy. As I mentioned above in my NO TRADE ideas, you would not take a trade in line with the bias (MACD below Signal - SHORT or MACD above Signal - LONG) when the MACD is pointing below horizontal for long or above horizontal for short (*re-read NO TRADE rule #2) as these result in fewer successful trades.
which got me checking and actually these have a 70% chance of failure, BUT and it's a big BUT. This means they have a 70% chance of success going against the bias.
If you use these opportunities where the MACD is returning to the signal line and wait for a crossover to happen on the shorter time frame, using all of the usual rules to setup a trade.
#1, Shorter time frame crossover (above zero for short, below zero for long)
#2, Candles closing over the 200 period EMA.
But with some exceptions.
Lower risk position, if you usually trade with more than 1% of your portfolio then half it for these positions.
Stop loss set at recent swing rather than overall swing.
Hard take profit at 1.5xR.
It's a nice way to scalp some pips but wouldn't use it as a stand alone strategy.
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