The prospect of a likely victory of market friendly candidate in France (Macron) would redirect attention to ECB policy normalization and imply a bullish impact on EUR in the middle term. However a victory of Le Pen would drive to an signficant bearish impact on EUR in the short term and support the YEN, as this currency is a big beneficiary of risk aversion. The other main risk of this trade is a strong risk aversion globally that will propell the YEN.