As a price action trader, I evaluate recent price history, compare it to current price action and anticipate where price can go next based on PROBABILITIES stacking up. Recent price structure indicates strength, and it is reasonable to expect higher prices unless the market PROVES otherwise.
Based on that idea, as long as price stays above the 1.1280 to 1.1325 , I would continue to look for longs in general. If that support is broken, it would put the most recent price structure into question and signal a more significant change that would transition my outlook from to neutral.
Examining the most recent swing from 1.1320 to 1.1440, there are two support areas that in my opinion offer good levels to watch for reversals and for possible day trade or swing trade entries. The low 1.1390s and the 1.1340 to 1.1360 area. These supports have a better chance of holding based on the recent strength. The key is to wait for a price pattern reversal on smaller time frames, or at least a pattern on a larger time frame. If price pushes below 1.1340, that would negate this scenario and will emphasize the significance of the multi year resistance mentioned earlier.
On the upside, if price clears the 1.1430 resistance, then it is much more likely to test the multi year resistance. Current price structure leans more toward this outcome, since it is reasonable to expect price to make a higher high (which can take this pair into the 1.1480s or higher.).
In summary, we are near an important while current price structure is . The best way to position yourself in this type of situation is wait for a retracement to a noted support, confirm a reversal pattern, and use that level to evaluate your risk/reward using the 1.1450 area as a conservative target.
This analysis is meant to provide perspective for day trading and swing trading strategies. Questions and comments are always welcome.