EUR/USD analysis and strategy recommendations

昨天This week's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data is key to gauging the health of the U.S. labor market. Economists expect Friday's employment report to show modest job gains, reflecting the economy's continued stabilization. Analysts expected about 144,000 jobs to be added, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 142,000. This data will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, especially in the discussion of further interest rate cuts.
The preliminary September CPI reading, due on Tuesday, is expected to attract attention across the eurozone. Headline CPI is expected to fall to 1.9% from 2.2% previously. While Lagarde and her colleagues did not provide a clear indication of an economic downturn in October, the unsatisfactory PMI data prompted market participants to raise their expectations for this indicator. There is a more than 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the October 17 meeting.

Eur/USD remains below the double top pattern near 1.1200, having experienced a new bullish peak in the previous week, reaching a 14-month high of 1.1215. The market is developing well above the short-term uptrend line and the technical oscillators are slightly weaker than in previous days. More gains could lead the market until the next stop of 1.1275 in July 2023.

Eur/USD is currently trading at 1.1174, up 0.14%. The pair held steady above 1.11558, suggesting neutral to bullish sentiment.

The key resistance levels are 1.11890 and 1.12032, with immediate support at 1.11391, followed by 1.11221 and 1.11047.

The 50-day moving average of 1.11627 and the 200-day moving average of 1.11454 indicate a stable trend, making 1.11558 a critical point for future moves. A break below 1.11558 could trigger short-term bearish moves.