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POTENTIAL COUNTER TREND OPPORTUNITY ON EURUSD

已更新

I've tried to keep this as clean as possible but, there's so much going on in this chart so please bear with me.

Price action on EURUSD has come into a previously identified support level anticipated to be a rally point following the break down below the neckline of an H&S identified on the Daily Charts (not shown/addressed here). This support level was anticipated to give the market some pause before resuming it's intended direction to complete the H&S at measured targets.

That said, an interesting opportunity has arisen in the form of stochastic (12,3,3) bullish divergence on the 4 hr chart at this support level. This provides some confidence in my anticipated short term bullish expectation. In support of my prediction:
1. We have an equal measured move completing at the neckline of the H&S at about 1.1860
2. There is fib confluence at the EMM zone in the form of a 50% retracement from most recent major swing high to current lows, 38.2% retracement from high of the Head at 1.20885 to current lows and a 161.8% inversion of current lows to swing high at 1.18094 (CURRENT LOWS = 1.17163)
As an added support to this prediction, there is a Potential Bullish Bat pattern setting up on the 1 hr chart (uk.tradingview.com/x/gHmZlmXJ/), which, IF it can complete will THEN provide a good entry opportunity and also participate in setting up a double bottom on the 4 hr chart.

My targets would be at:
T1 - Highs of the Bat at 1.1757
T2 - Previous structure at about 1.1790 and
T3 - EMM at 1.1860

Feedback on my analysis would be quite welcome and appreciated.

Usual disclaimers expressed. I am not a licensed professional (I am in-fact still learning how to trade). All views and opinions are my own and do not constitute trading advice. Please seek professional advice before risking your scrilla on any trades.

Good luck with your trades today

註釋

Forgot to mention two things:
1. In added support to my expectations, the bullish divergence on the 4 hr chart also coincidences with oversold stochastic (12,3,3) and RSI (14), which provides added confidence in my bias
2. There is a slew of Euro zone and U.S data out today that could influence this pair and my bias (uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/). I'm going to play this one a tad cautious (as though I'm not always) in light of these. Hopefully they work in favour of my bias (don't know if that is appropriate to say...)

交易進行

Order just got filled in the last hour.
I'm going for one target on this one and actively managing the trade/stop lose.

Let's see how this puppy plays out.

註釋

Looking good so far.
Target 1s HIT

Stops at break even. We are now in a risk free trade.
Let's see if we can get target 2s by the close of the trading day.

註釋

It is proving to be a very productive day. Markets have been really kind to my analysis and we have successfully HIT T2s

Stops now moved to lock in profits ATR pips below the outside return/retracement on the 1 hr chart.

However this plays out now, I will be counting this as One Good Trade.
T1 and 2 it in the same day so that's an awesome result. Let's see how price action will get to target 3 IF it can get there.

With a few minutes to go till quarter past the hour, there is a potential Bullish Gartley setting up/completing on the 15 minute chart. However, I have my fingers crossed cause this can still turn into a Bullish Crab, putting our Stop lose at risk.
IF it pans out as a Bullish Gartley, it may provide the impetus for the much desired bullish continuation to T3.

Let's see how it goes.

手動結束交易

Out of this for about 50 odd pips shy of T3s.

We couldn't quite get to final targets on this occasion. Chicago PMI is to blame-unexpectedly rash reaction to the data release dropping 30 odd pips in 15 minutes especially considering how market had mainly fobbed off most data today to put in an impressive rally-market does what it wants. But we good stop placement/management helped keep us in the trade.

I'm not willing to hold the trade over the weekend, also considering it is the last trading session for this month. So we're taking the win and calling this one.

This has certainly been one good trade from beginning to end.
IPDE analysis was spot on, entry could not have been more perfect, trade and stop management and disciplined psychology and approach (thank you to my teachers for pounding that in there) worked beautifully- going from risk on to risk free to locked profits to winner, good position sizing and money management helped improved the confidence in taking this trade, and this was for the most part a pretty pain free trade. The markets were truly kind on this one. Thank you!

This is all thanks to the most awesome teachers ever. Good teachers and a good education are hard to come by especially in learning this skill set and I for one am happy I found teachers whom in my opinion have to be the best out there.

So I end this month's trading session saying a big thank you to my teachers at T.E.
AWESOME DAYS. ONE GOOD TRADE. ON TO THE NEXT TRADE.

THANK YOU TRADING VIEW COMMUNITY FOR LETTING ME SHARE THIS AND ALL MY OTHER IDEAS WITH YOU-WINNERS AND LOSERS ALIKE!
LET'S LOOK FORWARD TO A GOOD TRADING MONTH NEXT MONTH AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR.

HAPPY NIGERIAN INDEPENDENCE DAY IN ADVANCE (1ST OCTOBER FOR THOSE WHO DON'T KNOW.)

TO ALL HAVE A SPECTACULAR END OF MONTH WEEKEND.