EURUSD, Long term Dollar short

已更新

Earlier today i posted in my public channel that i am going to build up a long term position on the EURUSD (so shorting the USD).
Past weeks it dropped quite a bit, so everyone holding Bitcoins, has made a 3/4% bonus when living in Europe. I had just hedged the Bitcoins i have, so locking in that extra bonus profit :). This is of course assuming the BTCUSD is the main Bitcoin price the world is watching. Meaning, that if Bitcoin is at lets say $10.000, and euro/usd drops 2%, that BTCUSD doesn't react on that price change in the Dollar. So if BTCUSD is at 10.000 and BTCEUR is at 9000, that when EURUSD drops 4%, that BTCUSD stays at 10.000, but BTCEUR does react on this currency change and moves up to 9360.

Besides this bonus strategy, i believe the Dollar might dump coming years. There is potential the high is here at the moment. Think past month, a lot of money went to the US because of negative bonds in Europe while the US still pays intrest. It sucks to pay money over your savings. This effect will stop at some point, which could be now, could also continue much longer, wish i knew. Like Europe is not able to lower intrest anymore (unless they want to trigger a civil war or something (look at the Paris protest past half year or so on their pensions). But the US still has some room, so when they start to do that (hope they don't, would be very dumb long term IMO), foreign investors will prob move back to their own currency. There are many more fundamental reasons, but a bit too much to talk about it here.

Now, when looking at the chart, on the left there is a potential low set, since that trend line has showed temporarily support for many times past 2 years. On the right, it looks like a curved shape, with this last move up being like a final shake out move. So IMO, there is a lot of potential here. Already up 30/40 pips since my update :). But meaningless of course, because as mentioned in that same update, this is very likely going to be a strategy i will hold for many years. Today's positions was to hedge my bitcoins and coming period i will increase it and have a speculating/investing position as well. So this is not a trade with a stop loss.

Not saying everyone who has Bitcoins in Euro land should hedge now, because my timing could be completely off. But for the ones who are not aware of this and have a decent amount in Bitcoin, at least think about it. Extreme situation/example:

BTCUSD goes from 10.000 (btceur 9.000) to 12.000 coming 2 years. In they meantime EURUSD rallies like we did 10/14 years ago (30+ % rally). For BTCEUR it would mean a 20% increase for Bitcoin but a 30% loss on the EURUSD. So would mean you would even loose money if this extreme would happen.

Of course the same goes for other assets in a similar situation, so also for people holding stocks in USD but living for example in Europe.

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Previous analysis: (click the play button, for the ones who remember, a year ago i did a few counter TA's on EURUSD. I almost NOT using any TA, but was simply looking at TradingView page of EURUSD. If most would say long, because a big resistance had broken, i would make a TA on a bull trap move and vice versa. As crazy as it sounds, it worked several times in a row :). Theory behind this is, like most assets, people are getting trapped by the whales, why TA sucks so many times).