Comprehensive Analysis of EUR/USD Focusing on Elliott Wave

7月21日

Overview:

The EUR/USD is analyzed using Elliott Wave Theory, which is a form of technical analysis used to forecast market trends by identifying the waves of market sentiment. This analysis spans multiple timeframes (H1, H4, Daily), providing a detailed perspective on the potential future movements of the pair.

H1 (Hourly) Analysis:

• Current Wave Pattern: The H1 chart suggests the completion of wave (ii), indicating a correction phase has likely ended.
• Subwaves: Waves i and ii are identified within the wave structure, signaling the start of wave iii.
• Indicators: The MACD and RSI are used to confirm wave counts and potential reversals.
• MACD: Shows the potential for a bullish reversal, indicating momentum is shifting in favor of wave iii.
• RSI: Positioned near 47.28, suggesting a potential upward move as it is in a neutral zone, not overbought or oversold.

H4 (4-Hour) Analysis:

• Wave Structure: The H4 chart shows a completed wave (ii) correction with a clear upward move beginning with wave (iii).
• Subwaves: Within wave (iii), smaller subwaves i, ii, iii, iv, and v are noted, indicating the early stages of this wave.
• Key Levels:
• Support: 1.06656 (critical support, previous wave ii bottom).
• Resistance: 1.11414 and 1.12736 (Fibonacci retracement levels and previous highs).
• Indicators:
• MACD: Trending positively, supporting the continuation of wave iii.
• RSI: At 61.29, suggesting upward momentum but approaching overbought conditions, warranting caution.

Daily Analysis:

• Wave Count: The daily chart shows the formation of a larger wave structure with the current phase being wave iii of wave (iii).
• Key Levels:
• Support: 1.06656, 1.04505, and 1.02171 (Fibonacci levels and historical support zones).
• Resistance: 1.11414 and 1.12736, followed by potential targets near 1.18070.
• Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish crossover, indicating strong upward momentum.
• RSI: At 66.81, close to overbought territory but still supportive of further gains.

Summary and Forecast:

The EUR/USD appears to be in the early stages of a significant upward move, supported by the completion of wave (ii) corrections on both H1 and H4 charts. The analysis suggests a bullish outlook with potential targets at key resistance levels such as 1.11414, 1.12736, and further towards 1.18070. However, traders should be cautious as RSI on higher timeframes approaches overbought conditions, which could trigger short-term corrections.

Key Points to Monitor:

1. Critical Support at 1.06656: A break below this level could invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction.
2. Momentum Indicators: Watch for divergence in MACD and RSI, which could signal potential reversals or corrections.
3. Wave Subdivisions: Continued formation of smaller waves within wave iii will be critical in confirming the bullish trend.

Overall, the EUR/USD shows a promising bullish setup according to Elliott Wave Theory, but attention to key support levels and momentum indicators is crucial to navigate potential corrections.