Basically I see a situation in the EURUSD - but addional I see a possible short Trade, for a short time, with good potencial for a winning Trade with 100 Pips and more.
The Momentum of the last Week was strong and hard. After such a week, it often happens that the momentum simply reverses. One Point for this Scenario is, that we start with a new fresh Week. This is banal, but works. The cards are shuffled. and this is very common.
The other bigger Point is, that you can make a short with a great small Stop. To trade the long Side is difficult, because you can not set a accurate Stop, without a potencial big losses, if the market goes further upwards.
For the short Side, you have big potencial and a small Stop. The Risk/Win Ratio is great and we have a new fresh Week. Both Points make a short attractive.
Addional we see in the EURUSD , that the Range from End April to beginning Mai , the Target from this Range is now reach. (Range multiplied with two).
The short Trade:
The best Scenario for a short is, that the EURUSD make not a new Weekly High - but frequently in the fist hours he do this. Aggressive Trader use this Situation for a short or starting the short beginning the Market is open.
Carefully Trader are waiting for an hour break down. The first small Target is the area 1.1150 and the Main Target is below 1.1100. If we have on Monday lower Prices and Thuesday a break under the Monday Daily Lows. The Short Position have power to see Prices around 1.10
The Stop for this Trade is by 112.55 and if the Trade are working, change, the Stop above the Monday Daily High.
To establish a short Position, makes only sense, if we get a daily break down, through a daily low. Possible on Wednesday.
If that does not happen, longs are favored.
Many Traders have problems to go on the long side in such market situations, because the market has make strong upwards moves.
But on the Exchange there is no too high or too low. Everything is always relative. And if wee see in few Days, Prices arround 1.14 - then you have great longs.
Short if we see a Dailylow breakout, otherwise longs are favor.