Weekly closing price: 1.1894
Despite registering a loss last week, the single currency remains trading with a reasonably strong bias to the upside. The weekly supply-turned at 1.1880-1.1777, as you can see, kept upside buoyancy intact in the shape of a relatively strong weekly buying tail. For this reason, we believe the weekly stage is set for price to challenge the weekly resistance plotted at 1.2044 this week.
Daily support at 1.1878 was in the spotlight last week. Although the line suffered a minor breach on Tuesday, the unit managed to compose itself and cross back above the line on Thursday and hold (in the shape of a daily indecision candle) into the closing bell. A break above the 27/11 high at 1.1961 ( ) would likely place the aforementioned weekly resistance in the limelight.
The H4 candles were unable to sustain gains beyond September’s opening level at 1.1913, after very nearly clipping the underside of the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1944 on Friday. This intraday weakness transported price down to the H4 mid-level support at 1.1850 (positioned nearby a H4 channel support extended from the low 1.1553), which, almost immediately, saw the euro switch tracks and surge more than 50 pips in a matter of minutes amid escalating political tension in the US.
Suggestions: Both weekly and daily structure state further buying could be on the cards this week. Yet, buying on the H4 timeframe is considered high-risk due to upside resistance. Not only do we have September’s opening level to contend with, we also have the aforesaid H4 Quasimodo resistance barrier located not too far above this.
As a result, we feel that the pair is ripe for an upside extension beyond 1.1944, targeting the large psychological band 1.20 (not seen on the screen), followed by the weekly resistance noted above at 1.2044.
Data points to consider: Spanish unemployment change at 8.00am; US factory orders m/m at 3pm GMT .
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Watch for H4 price to engulf 1.1944 and then look to trade any retest of this number seen thereafter (waiting for additional confirmation in the form of a full or near-full-bodied H4 bull candle following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).