Thursday Review: Forex, Gold, Oil and U.S. Treasuries

5 天前

Over the past two weeks, financial markets have experienced significant fluctuations in currencies, gold, oil and U.S. Treasuries, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors.

Currencies: U.S. Dollar Strengthening
The US dollar has maintained an uptrend against several major currencies, supported by the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy,yesterday's price pushed the Euro to 1.025,today the EUR/USD has shown a depreciation of the Euro against the dollar, currently trading around 1.029 USD per Euro a moving zone that it has resumed several times during January. The pound sterling has also shown weakness against the dollar, trading around 1.22 USD per pound it has moved recovering its prices from its lows of 1.20986 despite a weak PPI at 1.5% (consensus 2.1% and previous 1.6%) and inflation at 2.5% (consensus and previous 2.6%) which have not been really good. USD/JPY has seen a significant rise, currently trading at 156 JPY per USD in its support zones despite a positive export data, the Bank of Japan's monetary policies are not being able to properly sustain the currency on the recovery path. The Australian dollar despite having a clear downtrend since October 2024, has shown a slight appreciation against the US dollar since this Monday 13, trading around 0.65 USD per AUD. The Canadian dollar seems to be managed by the Bank of Canada in a range initiated on December 18 to date, that has maintained a stable price against the US dollar, around 1.43 CAD per USD, in a range of 1.446 and 1.43 USD.

Gold: Influenced by Dollar Strength
The price of gold has shown volatility in recent weeks, influenced by the strength of the dollar and interest rate expectations. Currently, gold is trading around USD 2,698.68 per ounce. The precious metal is facing resistance at 2,721.20 USD per ounce, which with the entry of Donald Trump and his tariffs, could appreciate again and cause this resistance to be pierced.

Oil: Movements in the WTI and Brent Markets
Oil prices have experienced fluctuations due to factors such as global supply and demand, as well as OPEC+ decisions. U.S. crude oil stocks were lower than expected -1.961M versus -1.6M expected. Gasoline and distillates stocks were higher than expected. The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is currently at 78.50 USD. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil is at 82.50 USD. Both prices have returned to July 2024 prices. It is expected that crude oil will face demand problems that could push BRENT out of 84 USD and push WTI to the 81.15 USD area where its main resistance is located.

US Treasury Bonds: Yields on the Rise
US Treasury bond yields have shown an increase in recent weeks, reflecting investors' expectations about monetary policy and inflation. The yield on the 10-year bond is approximately 4.61%, while the yield on the 20-year bond is around 4.74%.

Factors Influencing the Movements.
These movements are being driven by a variety of factors, including:
- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Expectations about future interest rate hikes have strengthened the dollar and affected gold prices.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Factors such as OPEC+ production decisions and tensions in the Middle East have influenced oil prices.
- Economic Data: Indicators such as inflation and economic growth have affected expectations for Treasury yields.
In summary, financial markets have shown significant movements over the past two weeks, influenced by a combination of monetary policies, geopolitical factors and economic data. Investors should keep an eye on these developments to better understand current market dynamics.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst







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