In this post I will mention the reasons why there is a room for EURUSD to break below 1.1850?
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- The highly contagious Delta strain is inducing renewed curbs in some EU countries, as it continues to loom large over the tourism season in Europe.
2- U.S. rose to the top Bloomberg's Covid-19 Resilience Ranking for the first time, a measure that indicate how well countries are handling the pandemic.
3- Not all EU leaders agree on which vaccine counts (European tourism at risk).
4- ECB is increasingly lonely as it works to support Europe's nascent economy rebound even as counterparts such as the U.S. FED shift toward likely rate increases.
5- Some 20 EU countries are issuing digital vaccine certificates under the new EU system that's set to go live on July 1.
MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED
1- ECB (dovish, extended PEPP, modest inflation )
2- FED (recent dovish, withdrawing fiscal support, tapering talks, split on sooner than later to go hawkish)
What price action to expect ahead?
- ACCORDING TO MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED, THAT HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON THE PAIR'S EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DIRECTION, I WOULD SAY THE PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1950-1.1750)
- WEDNESDAY DATA IS EYED, INVESTORS WOULD NOT PROBABLY PUSH FOR A BREAK BELOW 1.1850 BEFORE WEDNESDAY'S NFP DATA, IF DATA HAPPENS TO BE NOT AS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO DISAPPOINTING THE DOWNTREND WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BREAK BELOW 1.1850, BUT IF IT HAPPENS TO BE VERY DISAPPOINTING THEN THE DOWNTREND WOULD LOSE ITS MOMENTUM.
- IN OTHER WORDS YES THERE IS A CHANCE TO BREAK BELOW 1.1850 BUT THE NFP RELEASE WOULD BE THE FINAL CONFIRMATION (IWILL WRITE AN UPDATE AFTER THE DATA RELEASE TOMORROW).
- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- The highly contagious Delta strain is inducing renewed curbs in some EU countries, as it continues to loom large over the tourism season in Europe.
2- U.S. rose to the top Bloomberg's Covid-19 Resilience Ranking for the first time, a measure that indicate how well countries are handling the pandemic.
3- Not all EU leaders agree on which vaccine counts (European tourism at risk).
4- ECB is increasingly lonely as it works to support Europe's nascent economy rebound even as counterparts such as the U.S. FED shift toward likely rate increases.
5- Some 20 EU countries are issuing digital vaccine certificates under the new EU system that's set to go live on July 1.
MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED
1- ECB (dovish, extended PEPP, modest inflation )
2- FED (recent dovish, withdrawing fiscal support, tapering talks, split on sooner than later to go hawkish)
What price action to expect ahead?
- ACCORDING TO MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED, THAT HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON THE PAIR'S EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DIRECTION, I WOULD SAY THE PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1950-1.1750)
- WEDNESDAY DATA IS EYED, INVESTORS WOULD NOT PROBABLY PUSH FOR A BREAK BELOW 1.1850 BEFORE WEDNESDAY'S NFP DATA, IF DATA HAPPENS TO BE NOT AS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO DISAPPOINTING THE DOWNTREND WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BREAK BELOW 1.1850, BUT IF IT HAPPENS TO BE VERY DISAPPOINTING THEN THE DOWNTREND WOULD LOSE ITS MOMENTUM.
- IN OTHER WORDS YES THERE IS A CHANCE TO BREAK BELOW 1.1850 BUT THE NFP RELEASE WOULD BE THE FINAL CONFIRMATION (IWILL WRITE AN UPDATE AFTER THE DATA RELEASE TOMORROW).
- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -