As the curtain fell on 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair concluded the year under a veil of bearish pressure, aligning closely with the predictions outlined in previous analyses. On the final trading day of the year, the pair reached a significant low, hitting our predetermined take profit level at 1.03500. This movement signifies the prevailing market sentiment as we transition into 2025, with indicators suggesting that the bearish trajectory remains firmly in place.
The backdrop of this price action is rooted in a risk-averse atmosphere that has characterized global markets. Investors seeking safety gravitated towards the US Dollar (USD), further dampening the EUR/USD pairing as we approached the New Year break. Such aversion to risk has historically led to a strengthening USD, which paints a challenging picture for the Euro amid ongoing economic transformations across Europe.
As we move into the first week of 2025, all eyes are on the forthcoming US economic indicators, particularly the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Analysts predict that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits will climb to 222,000, a modest uptick from the previous week's 219,000. Should the actual figures exceed expectations, this could lead to a weakening of the USD in the latter part of the day, introducing an element of volatility into the market.
On the other side of the Atlantic, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde provided insights into the ECB's progress in combating inflation throughout 2024. In her recent statements, she expressed optimism about hitting the inflation targets set for 2025, stating, "Hopefully, 2025 is the year when we are on target as expected and as planned in our strategy." Despite these assertions, the market reaction to her comments was tepid at best, illustrating a possible disconnect between the ECB's hopes and the stark realities facing the Eurozone.
Lagarde’s emphasis on the progress achieved in 2024 indicates a deliberate and strategic approach to monetary policy; however, the actual impact on the Euro remains to be seen. The broader economic conditions in Europe, including persistent inflationary pressures and slower economic growth compared to the United States, add layers of complexity to the Euro's valuation against its American counterpart.
Previous Idea with Take profit reached:
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