The sharply long just begin.

2019年4月30日

As we can appreciate the price had touch once again the lower part of the channel area. The odds are inclined to a downside movement.

What to take on considerations:

In the fundamental side: on wednesday there is going to be the FOMC meeting, the importance here is what is going to said Powell´s to the first quarter economic growth, the economy grew at a surprising rate of 3.2%, well above the consensus forecast of 2.5%, if the Fed keep their dovish tone with this datas, the chance to see one more cut in the federal rate increase. The earning season this week with relevant stocks such as Apple a that could bring volatility to the FX market, on friday is release the employment change in US, a significant data for the market.

In the technical side: The price is in the lower part of the channel area of the 5 wave, touching the 61.8 fibonacci level of the previous long movement(please change the timeframe to the weekly to see the move), what we can expect is a stronger consolidation in this area with a flat movement before the price get up with a sharply movement. There is an escenario the price to take a new low, but is must likely it happen with a weak movement.

Sources:

forexfactory.com/calendar.ph...
cnbc.com/2019/04/26/investor...
cnbc.com/2019/04/26/hot-firs...