EUR/USD Daily Outlook: All Eyes on the US CPI
Daily outlook for EUR/USD with fundamentals, intermarket, sentiment, and technicals.
Daily outlooks are stripped down versions of my Weekly outlook posts, focusing on daily events and price-action, so make sure to check out the Weekly Outlooks as well.
Fundamentals: No major reports from Eurozone today puts the pair at mercy of USD dynamics. On July 22, the ECB will unveil their new monetary stimulus guidance, with Lagarde noting that the event will have “some
interesting variations and changes”. She also emphasized that the PEPP will run at least until March 2022.
Markets are focused on the US CPI report later today, with y/y numbers expected at 4.9% (vs 5.0% in May) and m/m expected at 0.5% (vs 0.6% in May). A beat of forecasts could lift the USD during the day.
Upcoming market reports:
Tuesday at 12:30: USD CPI m/m (Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 0.6%)
Tuesday at 12:30: USD Core CPI m/m (Expected: 0.4%, Previous: 0.7%)
Tuesday at 17:01: USD 30-y Bond Auction (Previous: 2.17|2.3)
Intermarket: Yield differentials (2y German-US) are slightly supportive for the pair.
Sentiment: Asia closed slightly higher, Europe is mixed. US markets reached fresh highs ahead of today's earnings reports (JP Morgan and PepsiCo among blue chips reporting.) JPY and USD are the strongest currencies so far, GBP the weakest. Sentiment is mixed and could be both bullish and bearish for EUR/USD.
Technicals: The pair entered a bear run this morning after trading in the vicinity of weekly highs (1.1880 resistance), forming lower high on the 1-hour chart. Volume was rising on increased selling pressure, but the latest 1-hour pinbar candlestick suggests some stopping volume entering the market and a possible turning point.
Below, 1.1825 remains an important support (level between the 50% and 61.8% Fibs, and a trendline support). A disappointing CPI could push the pair above the 1.1880 highs, while a strong reading could see a retest the 1.1780 region.
Daily outlooks are stripped down versions of my Weekly outlook posts, focusing on daily events and price-action, so make sure to check out the Weekly Outlooks as well.
Fundamentals: No major reports from Eurozone today puts the pair at mercy of USD dynamics. On July 22, the ECB will unveil their new monetary stimulus guidance, with Lagarde noting that the event will have “some
interesting variations and changes”. She also emphasized that the PEPP will run at least until March 2022.
Markets are focused on the US CPI report later today, with y/y numbers expected at 4.9% (vs 5.0% in May) and m/m expected at 0.5% (vs 0.6% in May). A beat of forecasts could lift the USD during the day.
Upcoming market reports:
Tuesday at 12:30: USD CPI m/m (Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 0.6%)
Tuesday at 12:30: USD Core CPI m/m (Expected: 0.4%, Previous: 0.7%)
Tuesday at 17:01: USD 30-y Bond Auction (Previous: 2.17|2.3)
Intermarket: Yield differentials (2y German-US) are slightly supportive for the pair.
Sentiment: Asia closed slightly higher, Europe is mixed. US markets reached fresh highs ahead of today's earnings reports (JP Morgan and PepsiCo among blue chips reporting.) JPY and USD are the strongest currencies so far, GBP the weakest. Sentiment is mixed and could be both bullish and bearish for EUR/USD.
Technicals: The pair entered a bear run this morning after trading in the vicinity of weekly highs (1.1880 resistance), forming lower high on the 1-hour chart. Volume was rising on increased selling pressure, but the latest 1-hour pinbar candlestick suggests some stopping volume entering the market and a possible turning point.
Below, 1.1825 remains an important support (level between the 50% and 61.8% Fibs, and a trendline support). A disappointing CPI could push the pair above the 1.1880 highs, while a strong reading could see a retest the 1.1780 region.
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