This weekly chart of the EURUSD may be a bit cluttered but the EURUSD is showing some mixed signals and requires a bit more detail to try to understand the potential trend. Using the Larry Williams COT Index we see that USD Commercial Interest is at extreme lows, indicating a potential for selling of the USD to step in. However, these extreme levels could be held for some time. The EUR on the other hand has come off extreme lows but is still working its way to wards the buy zone and more selling can be expected. The sum of the Open Interest for the EUR and USD has shown low interest during the decline. Now we see increased volume on the up waves showing signs of strength coming in. The net commercial COT (EUR-USD) (green line with scale on left axis) has shown a similar decline and is still showing a downward trend. The OBV (red overlay on chart with no scale) for the broker volume has shown effort with the up volume without response (price still slowly trending down) or divergence between price and the OBV indicating continued weakness. The volume profile indicates a significant volume cluster between 1.16 and 1.18 providing resistance and sellers are still in the market. On the down site there is a significant point of control at 1.12 which is to the top of the Wyckoff accumulation range established between March 2015 and December 2016. From this my view is that the current down trend is a backup to the creek (Trading Range) and could find support at 1.12 before going into markup in Phase E. So in the short term I am expecting a final drive to the support level at 1.12 in the next month or two. After that the Markup could potentially start and break the long-term downward stride of the EURUSD.
評論:
The EURUSD is possibly only finding resistance at the top of the range. The broker volume (FXCM + Oanda) and the Open Interest Volume has dropped to relatively low levels. There is also divergence with the volume RSI. This could indicate that there is not enough steam to break the top of the trading range and we could be moving back to the bottom of the range again.
