EURUSD has an upward trend

2023年10月4日

Julius Baer reduces its forecasts for the euro versus the dollar, now expecting it at $1.04 in three months compared with a previous forecast of $1.10, reflecting recent price movements and as the economyfavors a stronger dollar, economists David Kohl and Stephanie Kennedy say in a note. Given this week's dollar gains, it is increasingly difficult to justify forecasting euro appreciation as the dollar benefits from "a sustained tailwind." As both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have probably completed their cycle of interest-rate increases, movements in the exchange rate will increasingly depend on economic momentum again, they say. Julius Baer forecasts EUR/USD at 1.08 in 12 months' time. EUR/USD falls 0.1% to 1.0458.