EURUSD Analysis for longterm

EURUSD has been in consolidation for some time now. There is no clear direction to this pair, price is currently retesting the support of 1.15400, a clear break of that support, and price will continue down to last months low of 1.13000. A rejection of this support, price would make its way back to 1.17300 and reattempt to break upwards. With Thursdays refinancing rate release, it could be the catalyst for a continuation of a bear trend or a start of a bull run.