Can the U.S. Dollar Overtake the Euro? Will EUR/USD Fall Below 1

2024年12月25日

The EUR/USD pair has been hovering near a critical psychological level of 1.0000, sparking debates among traders about whether the U.S. dollar's strength could push the euro below parity. Current market dynamics suggest that a break below this level is plausible, with a potential target of 0.9889.

Historical Context: Why Did EUR/USD Fall Below 1.00 in September 2022?

The last time EUR/USD fell below parity was in September 2022, driven by several key factors:

1. Aggressive Federal Reserve Rate Hikes:
   The Federal Reserve was highly hawkish in 2022, implementing aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. This strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly against other currencies, including the euro.
   
2. Eurozone Energy Crisis:
   The Eurozone faced an energy crisis due to reduced natural gas supplies following geopolitical tensions with Russia. This created economic uncertainty, weakening the euro.
   
3. Recession Fears in Europe:
   Concerns about a potential recession in the Eurozone further pressured the euro, as investors shifted their focus to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar.
   

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Key Technical Levels:

Resistance at 1.0090:
The pair is currently facing strong resistance at 1.0090, where sellers have consistently stepped in to cap bullish attempts. This level aligns with a key supply zone, suggesting heavy sell-side liquidity.

Support at 1.0000:
The psychological level of 1.0000 acts as a critical support zone. A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure.

Next Target: 0.9889:
If the support at 1.0000 is breached, the pair could decline toward 0.9889, marking the next major support level from the previous price action.

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Factors Driving the Dollar’s Strength Today:

1. U.S. Economic Resilience:
   ]Strong economic data from the U.S., such as better-than-expected GDP growth and employment numbers, continues to support the dollar’s strength.
   
   
2. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance:
   The Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates high to combat inflation has been a major driver of USD appreciation.
   
   
3. Eurozone Weakness:
   On the other hand, weaker economic performance in the Eurozone, coupled with uncertainty around energy markets, has kept the euro under pressure.