EURUSD Weekly Bearish Pennant but More Likely to Break North

EURUSD is forming a Bearish Pennant. But this one doesn't look like it wants to continue going south. There have been several attempts to breakout north but it failed. To me, those false breakouts are clues that the market wants to go north. Judging by how the market reacted on both the FOMC in Sept and the NFP in October, there seems to be an underlying weakness in the Dollar that should manifest in the coming weeks or by the end of the year. Add to that the fact that the COT data is giving indications that the big boys are unwinding their EURO shorts, and USD longs. It's because of those reasons that I'm bullish for the Fiber in the Weekly and Monthly terms.

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With the ECB and Draghi's statements this Oct 22, 2015, the likelihood of EUR finally breakout out against the USD this year is now less likely. EUR's weakness should continue in 2015 and 2016 as it is in EU's interest to keep it low. The Fed also wants to keep USD low, but not as much as EU. We might see new lows for the EURO in the coming months.