Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Third leg up is done and now it’s all about how long do we need for a lower low below 23680 again. For now I don’t know since we have another risk-off news but of them were bought the past 3 months, so I remain skeptical. Too early for shorts but I think longs near 24000 are likely good for a bounce to either retest 24749 or print a lower high.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24800
bull case: Bulls want to continue sideways to up and trap all eager bears again who think that 30% tariffs between the US-EU are bad. Those poor souls. Markets can only go up.
Invalidation is below 23680
bear case: Bears need a lower low below 23680. That’s all there is to it. No idea how fast and if we get there but shorts before are most likely a gamble, since literally every dip since April has been bought and especially every Sunday Globex gap down became a giant trap. I do think 24749 is a perfect double top with the prior ath from June and we can go down from here but until we have a daily close below 23680, I am not eager to run into another bear trap.
Invalidation is above 24749
short term: Neutral. Tariff news are bad but they are not in-effect, so could be that we see another bear trap. I don’t know and I won’t pretend otherwise. Sitting on hands.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000.
comment: Third leg up is done and now it’s all about how long do we need for a lower low below 23680 again. For now I don’t know since we have another risk-off news but of them were bought the past 3 months, so I remain skeptical. Too early for shorts but I think longs near 24000 are likely good for a bounce to either retest 24749 or print a lower high.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24800
bull case: Bulls want to continue sideways to up and trap all eager bears again who think that 30% tariffs between the US-EU are bad. Those poor souls. Markets can only go up.
Invalidation is below 23680
bear case: Bears need a lower low below 23680. That’s all there is to it. No idea how fast and if we get there but shorts before are most likely a gamble, since literally every dip since April has been bought and especially every Sunday Globex gap down became a giant trap. I do think 24749 is a perfect double top with the prior ath from June and we can go down from here but until we have a daily close below 23680, I am not eager to run into another bear trap.
Invalidation is above 24749
short term: Neutral. Tariff news are bad but they are not in-effect, so could be that we see another bear trap. I don’t know and I won’t pretend otherwise. Sitting on hands.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000.
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