Price bounced off lower blue line after consolidation. Broke through resistance around 42 today. Looking for roughly 43.50 by December 6. $44 will be significant resistance at the conjunction of the upper projected Bollinger Band, the upper blue channel line and the .76 Fib line.
In regards to macro events; Hong Kong just elected a pro democracy cancel majority which should calm things down in Hong Kong A LOT. Also, Trump has said he may veto the bill targetting Hong Kong for sanctions so as not to derail trade agreement. With a new "government" elected in Hong Kong, Trump has enough wiggle room to "give peace a chance" and veto the bill. China has been putting out press releases emphasizing progress with Phase 1 and it's almost complete. I'm looking for an announcement of a signing date any day now. The Chinese want to avoid additional tariffs on Dec 15 and Trump doesn't want a repeat of last years stock market meltdown during the holidays. I think this will all come together any day now before December 15. (After the deal is announced, or Dec 15 arrives, it will be time to reassess).
In regards to macro events; Hong Kong just elected a pro democracy cancel majority which should calm things down in Hong Kong A LOT. Also, Trump has said he may veto the bill targetting Hong Kong for sanctions so as not to derail trade agreement. With a new "government" elected in Hong Kong, Trump has enough wiggle room to "give peace a chance" and veto the bill. China has been putting out press releases emphasizing progress with Phase 1 and it's almost complete. I'm looking for an announcement of a signing date any day now. The Chinese want to avoid additional tariffs on Dec 15 and Trump doesn't want a repeat of last years stock market meltdown during the holidays. I think this will all come together any day now before December 15. (After the deal is announced, or Dec 15 arrives, it will be time to reassess).
評論:
I've exited this long. It has broken down out of the blue rising wedge and a potential back test is done. It also looks like a Head and Shoulders which could break down easily into the prior low of 37.51. Risk reward not good enough to play either direction with the trade deal nonsense.