GBP/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Plan for Next Week
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1. Elliott Wave Structure Overview:
Wave Count: GBP/JPY is analyzed as being in the later stages of a larger impulse wave cycle. Specifically, it suggests that Wave 5 of the broader uptrend is nearing completion.
Wave Labels: The internal structure of the ongoing corrective pattern is marked with sub-waves (i, ii, iii, iv, v). The chart highlights that GBP/JPY may be forming a corrective wave (1)-(2)-(3) sequence within Wave 5.
2. Fibonacci Projections and Key Levels:
Extension Levels: Key Fibonacci extension levels such as 2.236 (213.660) and 2.618 (218.783) are used to project potential targets for Wave 3 and Wave 5. These levels signify areas where price momentum might decelerate or reverse.
Retracement Levels: The retracements, particularly 0.618 (195.148) and 0.382 (202.215), indicate zones where pullbacks might find support, validating a potential Wave 4 correction before the final push in Wave 5.
3. Confluence Zones:
Support and Resistance: Key zones like 208.117 (the most recent swing high) and 192.482 (an important invalidation level) are critical. Price action at these levels will provide insights into whether GBP/JPY will continue its upward trajectory or reverse course.
Dealing Range and Volume Analysis: The upper resistance at 211.895 is marked as a dealing range, where volume divergence is noted, indicating a potential exhaustion point for Wave 5.
4. Harmonic Patterns:
AB=CD Pattern: An ABC corrective structure within a potential bullish continuation is highlighted. The specific retracement levels of 0.786 and 1.272 are pivotal, suggesting where the current consolidation might terminate before a breakout to new highs.
Complex Corrective Wave: The analysis suggests a possible shallow or sharp Wave 2 correction within the larger wave, implying a short-term retracement that aligns with harmonic and Fibonacci confluence.
5. Market Invalidation and Risk Management:
Critical Invalidation Level: The chart denotes 192.482 as the key invalidation point for the current wave count. A decisive break below this level would invalidate the anticipated bullish wave structure and prompt reevaluation.
Stop-Loss Placement: Traders may place stop-loss orders just below 192.482 to protect against downside risk, maintaining a risk-reward ratio aligned with potential targets at the 2.236 and 2.618 extensions.
6. Projected Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If GBP/JPY holds above 195.148 and breaks past the 208.117 resistance, it could target the 2.618 extension (218.783) as the final phase of Wave 5. This move would align with an extended impulse wave, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
Bearish Reversal: Failure to maintain support above the 0.618 retracement (195.148) or a break below the invalidation level (192.482) could signal a deeper corrective phase, potentially transitioning into a larger Wave A of an ABC correction.
7. Trading Plan for Next Week:
Entry Strategy: Monitor the price action near the 0.272 (205.508) and 0.382 (202.215) retracement levels. If the price consolidates and shows bullish rejection at these levels, consider a long position with tight stops.
Confirmation for Entry: Await a break and close above 208.117, supported by volume analysis and momentum indicators, to confirm the continuation of Wave 5.
Profit Targets: Set initial take-profit levels at 213.660 (2.236 extension) and extend them to 218.783 (2.618 extension) for a larger move.
Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below the 192.482 invalidation point to minimize potential losses.
8. Additional Observations:
Volume Divergence: The projected end of Wave 5 shows a volume divergence signal at 211.895, implying that momentum might taper off as it approaches this level.
Wave Subdivision: The chart highlights minor sub-wave structures that need to form (e.g., sub-waves long 2 and short 4). A successful completion of these sub-waves adds confidence to the upward continuation scenario.
Key Takeaways:
Primary Outlook: Bullish continuation with close monitoring of retracement levels for potential entries.
Risk Levels: Watch for breaks below 195.148 and 192.482 as critical bearish signals.
Targets: Focus on 213.660 and 218.783 for Wave 5 completion, aligning with potential exhaustion and confluence zones.
Wave Count: GBP/JPY is analyzed as being in the later stages of a larger impulse wave cycle. Specifically, it suggests that Wave 5 of the broader uptrend is nearing completion.
Wave Labels: The internal structure of the ongoing corrective pattern is marked with sub-waves (i, ii, iii, iv, v). The chart highlights that GBP/JPY may be forming a corrective wave (1)-(2)-(3) sequence within Wave 5.
2. Fibonacci Projections and Key Levels:
Extension Levels: Key Fibonacci extension levels such as 2.236 (213.660) and 2.618 (218.783) are used to project potential targets for Wave 3 and Wave 5. These levels signify areas where price momentum might decelerate or reverse.
Retracement Levels: The retracements, particularly 0.618 (195.148) and 0.382 (202.215), indicate zones where pullbacks might find support, validating a potential Wave 4 correction before the final push in Wave 5.
3. Confluence Zones:
Support and Resistance: Key zones like 208.117 (the most recent swing high) and 192.482 (an important invalidation level) are critical. Price action at these levels will provide insights into whether GBP/JPY will continue its upward trajectory or reverse course.
Dealing Range and Volume Analysis: The upper resistance at 211.895 is marked as a dealing range, where volume divergence is noted, indicating a potential exhaustion point for Wave 5.
4. Harmonic Patterns:
AB=CD Pattern: An ABC corrective structure within a potential bullish continuation is highlighted. The specific retracement levels of 0.786 and 1.272 are pivotal, suggesting where the current consolidation might terminate before a breakout to new highs.
Complex Corrective Wave: The analysis suggests a possible shallow or sharp Wave 2 correction within the larger wave, implying a short-term retracement that aligns with harmonic and Fibonacci confluence.
5. Market Invalidation and Risk Management:
Critical Invalidation Level: The chart denotes 192.482 as the key invalidation point for the current wave count. A decisive break below this level would invalidate the anticipated bullish wave structure and prompt reevaluation.
Stop-Loss Placement: Traders may place stop-loss orders just below 192.482 to protect against downside risk, maintaining a risk-reward ratio aligned with potential targets at the 2.236 and 2.618 extensions.
6. Projected Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If GBP/JPY holds above 195.148 and breaks past the 208.117 resistance, it could target the 2.618 extension (218.783) as the final phase of Wave 5. This move would align with an extended impulse wave, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
Bearish Reversal: Failure to maintain support above the 0.618 retracement (195.148) or a break below the invalidation level (192.482) could signal a deeper corrective phase, potentially transitioning into a larger Wave A of an ABC correction.
7. Trading Plan for Next Week:
Entry Strategy: Monitor the price action near the 0.272 (205.508) and 0.382 (202.215) retracement levels. If the price consolidates and shows bullish rejection at these levels, consider a long position with tight stops.
Confirmation for Entry: Await a break and close above 208.117, supported by volume analysis and momentum indicators, to confirm the continuation of Wave 5.
Profit Targets: Set initial take-profit levels at 213.660 (2.236 extension) and extend them to 218.783 (2.618 extension) for a larger move.
Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below the 192.482 invalidation point to minimize potential losses.
8. Additional Observations:
Volume Divergence: The projected end of Wave 5 shows a volume divergence signal at 211.895, implying that momentum might taper off as it approaches this level.
Wave Subdivision: The chart highlights minor sub-wave structures that need to form (e.g., sub-waves long 2 and short 4). A successful completion of these sub-waves adds confidence to the upward continuation scenario.
Key Takeaways:
Primary Outlook: Bullish continuation with close monitoring of retracement levels for potential entries.
Risk Levels: Watch for breaks below 195.148 and 192.482 as critical bearish signals.
Targets: Focus on 213.660 and 218.783 for Wave 5 completion, aligning with potential exhaustion and confluence zones.
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交易結束：目標達成
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註釋
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
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💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
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Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
註釋
What trading tools do you rely on the most and why?註釋
GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
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