Wyckoff Analysis
A: Volume increase on rally followed by inability to rally higher = buying climax. Consolidation range set.
B: Cause being built with sudden change of character - biggest rally since range started. Sign that something is now happening in terms of long/short by smart money. Gradual increase in volume towards C therefore rally in B seen as sign of weakness.
C: Biggest volume to date in range (ignore news peaks) at lowest point = spring. Accumulation and not distribution confirmed, tests done after spring too to doubly confirm. Another test possible (first green arrow) where a buy may be entered.
D: LPS (last point of support) possible before reaching top of range again + thin move down Thurs 11th = void fill may coincide with rally away from bottom of range before markup begins. Can scale in at BUI (back up onto ice)/range retest (second green arrow).
E: not taken place yet - markup.
Second test after spring would not be unexpected to shake out weak holders of GBP before they shoot/rally up after composite operators absorb offloaded positions. This has already happened in EUR/USD.
Long on retracement which may be a test. Stop at spring.
Typical Wyckoff minimum 3:1 trade.
Scale in on markup out of range.
TP1 = top of range.
NOTE: long position box not drawn to scale in terms of time.
A: Volume increase on rally followed by inability to rally higher = buying climax. Consolidation range set.
B: Cause being built with sudden change of character - biggest rally since range started. Sign that something is now happening in terms of long/short by smart money. Gradual increase in volume towards C therefore rally in B seen as sign of weakness.
C: Biggest volume to date in range (ignore news peaks) at lowest point = spring. Accumulation and not distribution confirmed, tests done after spring too to doubly confirm. Another test possible (first green arrow) where a buy may be entered.
D: LPS (last point of support) possible before reaching top of range again + thin move down Thurs 11th = void fill may coincide with rally away from bottom of range before markup begins. Can scale in at BUI (back up onto ice)/range retest (second green arrow).
E: not taken place yet - markup.
Second test after spring would not be unexpected to shake out weak holders of GBP before they shoot/rally up after composite operators absorb offloaded positions. This has already happened in EUR/USD.
Long on retracement which may be a test. Stop at spring.
Typical Wyckoff minimum 3:1 trade.
Scale in on markup out of range.
TP1 = top of range.
NOTE: long position box not drawn to scale in terms of time.
評論:
TP updated.
Will look to enter on LPS or BUI/throwback.