Sterling Overbought Into Resistance..A good time to be a seller!

2019年10月18日

Here we are tracking the highs in Cable as we enter into a key resistance. Getting the last minute deal over the line has had a large FX impact as the uncertainty has drastically held back investment. This has weighed heavy on European Yield curves and on exports. We are seeing these Yield curves steepen again meaning that USD will soften, I am in the camp of USD weakening across the board except versus Sterling which will have to devalue further from a strictly econometric and PPP perspective.

The market has finally convinced the masses that this is an uptrend and that dips will be bought, personally I am against the consensus here, and continue to actively sell a country voting to lose access to free markets (at least in the immediate term and hard to argue without apathy for the long run too). By the time retail is reading these positive headlines around the fabulous 'deal' (btw that is 10x worse than PM May's deal) smart money is loading on the other side. It's still a hard brexit, although the imminent shock to the economy was delayed by a few hours the potential investment in the near future will remain low.

For the technicals we are 'overbought' and into resistance with a long way to the macro swing targets. A Tudor banquet for all to eat from.

Thanks!

2019年10月21日

註釋