英鎊 / 美元看空
"Doves" it even matter?
已更新
A "dovish" surprise from the Fed yesterday ...but does it really matter?
Well the removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes.History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle.
In Brexitland, PM May playing politics with a "Queens Gambit"…by asking for the short-extension till the end of June she is trying to force MPs hands to vote for her deal. Options from the EU are still either for (short) Mid-May or (long) lasting into 2020. The risk scenario which will send Pound flying down across the FX board is that the EU reject an extension.
Expecting a muted BOE today, no hikes with the MPC judging further tightening warranted over the forecast horizon... same old story till we clear the political mess.
For those who are positioned from the previous ideas in GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPNZD and EURGBP it's time to trail stops and sit tight, markets are pricing a higher risk of a no deal Brexit again.
Same targets for the drama, for those following I will be covering the BOE live in RTP ... good luck guys.
Well the removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes.History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle.
In Brexitland, PM May playing politics with a "Queens Gambit"…by asking for the short-extension till the end of June she is trying to force MPs hands to vote for her deal. Options from the EU are still either for (short) Mid-May or (long) lasting into 2020. The risk scenario which will send Pound flying down across the FX board is that the EU reject an extension.
Expecting a muted BOE today, no hikes with the MPC judging further tightening warranted over the forecast horizon... same old story till we clear the political mess.
For those who are positioned from the previous ideas in GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPNZD and EURGBP it's time to trail stops and sit tight, markets are pricing a higher risk of a no deal Brexit again.
Same targets for the drama, for those following I will be covering the BOE live in RTP ... good luck guys.
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