H1 falling wedge breached

2020年5月25日

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Though under pressure, support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in May. Neighbouring resistance, should we see an attempt at recovery, can be found in the form of a trendline (1.7191). A violation of support, nevertheless, puts forward a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297.

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis -

A few pips south of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand), a double-top pattern formed at 1.2647, with May 13 consuming the neckline (April 21 1.2247) and establishing a potential take-profit target (purple) around 1.1855.

In light of the minor recovery off 1.2075, traders, particularly pattern traders, will note the double-top neckline at 1.2247 holds firm as resistance.

H4 timeframe:

Overall, price movement was incredibly thin Monday as a result of US and UK markets taking a back seat.

According to the H4 chart, price action has been grinding channel support (1.2642 – prior resistance) since topping last Tuesday at 1.2296. Supply at 1.2244/1.2209 also remains in the picture.

H1 timeframe:

Since early last week, H1 carved out a falling wedge pattern between 1.2287/1.2219, which, as you can see, recently had its upper boundary penetrated as price closed in on the apex. The take-profit target, measured by taking the base value and adding this to the breakout point (yellow), can be found at 1.2270, sited within the lower limits of supply at 1.2295/1.2266. However, in order to reach this far north, dethroning 1.22, along with local supply at 1.2220/1.2199 and the 100-period simple moving average at 1.2212, would be required.

Structures of Interest:

Conflict remains present on the bigger picture. Monthly price holds 1.1904/1.2235, despite positioned against the major trend. Sellers on the daily timeframe, though, appear to be taking charge around the underside of the daily double top neckline at 1.2247.

On the lower timeframes, particularly the H1 chart, we are likely to see traders make an attempt to push higher, as traders seek the H1 falling wedge take-profit target at 1.2270. Yet, whether buyers will be able to maintain a position faced with selling opposition out of H4 supply at 1.2244/1.2209 and daily sellers coming off 1.2247 is difficult to judge.