GBP USD - Risk on scenario

2020年7月21日

Hello traders and analysts,

Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone.

COT report:
Long Short Total %Long %Short
GBP
Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60%
Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52%
Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59%
AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59%

USD
Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40%
Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37%
AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29%
Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29%


Technicals:
We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again.
However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long

There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players.
We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters.

for this trade however we are in short.
Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low.

Fundamentals
Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries,
Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire.
Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached
Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down.
Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment.
USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate.
USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable.

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Team Lupa