Gold Futures – Short-Term Technical Outlook as of April 23

Gold surged to nearly $3,500, but multiple indicators now point to a potential top. A short-term correction or consolidation phase appears likely before any new highs.

Bearish Signals Across the Board:

RSI Divergence: RSI failed to confirm recent highs, showing bearish divergence.

Momentum Fading: MACD & momentum oscillators rolled over → rally exhaustion.

Volume Shift: Rising on down moves, drying up on rallies → classic distribution.

Bearish Candlesticks: Spinning tops + bearish engulfing patterns signal reversal risk.

Elliott Wave: Likely completed 5-wave impulse → next up: ABC correction?

Cycles: April top aligns with intermediate cycle peak → watch May for cycle low.

Seasonality: Historically weak May–June period approaching.

COT Data: Speculators still long, but commercials heavily short → caution warranted.

🎯 Trade Setups
Short-Term (1–5 Days)

🎯 Short Entry: ~$3,400

📉 Target: $3,270 → $3,215

🛑 Stop: Above $3,460

Medium-Term (1–4 Weeks)

📉 Short below $3,215 → Target $2,970

✅ Or go long on confirmed bounce at $3,150–$3,180

Long-Term (1–6 Months)

🟢 Bullish bias after correction completes

🛒 Buy zones: $2,960–$2,720

🎯 Targets: $3,540 → $3,900+

⛔ Stop: Below $2,700

🧭 Outlook Summary:
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (short-term) → Bullish (long-term)
Gold likely topped in April — expect weakness or sideways action before the next major leg higher. Be patient for a better buying opportunity later this spring/summer.