Gold Futures– Expanding Triangle Top Hypothesis

As of April 14, 2025, gold has surged to record highs near $3,265, but the technical picture suggests trend exhaustion. Price action resembles a potential expanding triangle top, with bearish divergence on RSI and momentum, declining volume on rallies, and seasonal cycles hinting at weakness into May–June. This may not be a fresh impulse but rather a volatile topping formation. If the triangle pattern holds, we could see a breakdown toward the $2,950–$2,800 zone before another base forms. Short-term traders should be cautious and consider scaling into shorts only on failed bounces near resistance. Longs may want to wait until strong support zones around $2,750–$2,850 show signs of stabilization. Risk/reward now favors defense over chase.


Bearish Divergence Across the Board:

• RSI & Momentum indicators failed to confirm new highs
  
• Volume spiked on selloffs, not on breakouts
  
• Possible expanding triangle top forming (ABCDE pattern), often a major topping structure
  

Cycle & Fibonacci Confluence:

• Seasonal weakness into May–June aligns with cycle top
  
• Key retracement targets: $3,045 → $2,950 → $2,870 → $2,800
  
• Support zone to watch: $2,750–$2,850
  

Trade Strategy Ideas:

Short-Term Plan (1–3 Weeks)

Bias: Bearish or Neutral

Pattern: Expanding Triangle (C Wave Possibly Unfolding)

Key Levels:

Resistance: $3,265 (recent high), $3,200 (round-number, prior Wave B)


Initial Downside Targets: $3,045 (23.6% Fib), $2,950 (38.2%)


Stretch Target: $2,870–$2,800 (50–61.8% Fib, Cycle Support Zone)


Entry Plan (Short Bias):
Consider short positions on weak bounce rejections near $3,200–$3,240 if momentum remains divergent.

Watch for breakdowns under $3,100 with high volume confirmation.

Stop Loss: Above $3,275 (new highs invalidate C wave assumption)

Scale Out: Partial profits at $3,045, more at $2,950

Final Target: $2,870–$2,800 zone

Re-evaluate: If strong reversal candles or bullish volume return before $2,950, exit early.


Medium-Term Plan (1–2 Months)

Bias: Wait for correction to finish before new long

Key Timing: Cycle projection into late May–June 2025

Buy Zone (if correction unfolds):

Primary: $2,750–$2,850 (50–61.8% retracement & prior breakout zone)

Entry Strategy:

Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle or a clear RSI bottoming with momentum confirmation in the $2,750–$2,850 zone.

Prefer entries during a low-volatility retest or after a capitulation flush into major support.

Stop Loss: Below $2,700

Initial Targets for Bounce: $3,045 → $3,200

Scale Out Strategy:

Scale in between $2,800–$2,750

Begin scaling out above $3,045 and $3,150 if bounce occurs



Long-Term Plan (3–6+ Months)

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (contingent on structure post-correction)

Trend Review: If correction resolves and price bases around $2,800, long-term bulls may re-enter.

Invalidation of Bullish Thesis: A sustained break below $2,700 with heavy volume and commercial selling.

Next Major Bullish Cycle Potential:

Wave structure reset scenario: After expanding triangle resolution and larger ABC correction, new 5-wave impulse could begin in late Q2 2025.

Macro-Level Support: If global macro uncertainty rises again, gold could re-target $3,300 and higher.

Action: Remain flat until a confirmed low forms. Position building to be considered once weekly momentum resets and smart money returns.



📌 DYOR. Not financial advice.

#Gold #GC_F #Futures #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Seasonality #Momentum #RSI #ShortSetup