Horizontal trading range could turn out to be
a head & shoulders, or a double top.
In the past couple of days the index has reached
the level of the left shoulder, at 9400, and could
turn down from here.
800-point target from the range's bottom projects
a target around 8100 in the index.
The monthly chart shows the 2000- and 2007-market tops
were both around 8100.
Trade: Short at-the-market, stop above Friday highs.
The bounces between support- and resistance
levels can be traded by adjusting the size of the short.
Majority of profits to be taken at the 8500-support.
At least 9000 should be reached, even if this is just a range.
That was the technicals. I first and foremost think of events and
the macroeconomic picture. China is slowing down, US is tightening,
Europe's recovery looks feeble (plenty of European data next week),
and the ECB meeting is on April 3. The majority of the move down might
come when the ECB again fails to react to the worsening macro.
a head & shoulders, or a double top.
In the past couple of days the index has reached
the level of the left shoulder, at 9400, and could
turn down from here.
800-point target from the range's bottom projects
a target around 8100 in the index.
The monthly chart shows the 2000- and 2007-market tops
were both around 8100.
Trade: Short at-the-market, stop above Friday highs.
The bounces between support- and resistance
levels can be traded by adjusting the size of the short.
Majority of profits to be taken at the 8500-support.
At least 9000 should be reached, even if this is just a range.
That was the technicals. I first and foremost think of events and
the macroeconomic picture. China is slowing down, US is tightening,
Europe's recovery looks feeble (plenty of European data next week),
and the ECB meeting is on April 3. The majority of the move down might
come when the ECB again fails to react to the worsening macro.