Sell order activated / #1,730.80 is on Sellers aim

2022年8月26日

Gold's general commentary: No new surprises as Gold is under mixed signals and no major development while Daily chart remains Bearish and Hourly 1 and 4 chart’s reveal significant Bullish bias alongside Overbought RSI. Bond Yields were comfortably Trading above #3.000 psychological barrier and on the other hand real Rate Yields priced in the #0.456% peak (values near Annual High’s), but sole development has less or no effect on Gold. DX once again was rejected near #52-Week High’s towards Medium-term Support belt of #108.095 - #108.160 with no firm reasoning and added huge Buying pressure on Gold, which pushed the Price-action towards Lower High’s on bigger chart’s Descending channel, so currently DX remains one and only correlation asset for Gold (regarding Intra-week basis). Current #3-session consecutive Buying spree can be treated as easing Oversold values Gold was Trading under as market cannot Trade only in one direction. Tuesday’s Low Volumed session was the evidence that Investors remain cautious at the moment and are not in a hurry to position themselves ahead of today’s High impact Fed chairman speech as that kind of event in most cases brings turbulence on the markets.


Technical analysis: Despite the Intra-day decline on DX, Gold is extending it’s depressed moves / Buying pressure is evident, but still Gold is showcasing the strong underlying Bearish trend. What keeps Gold ranged is DX Trading near Support cluster, and above almost Monthly High’s on Bond Yields. Also, regarding yesterday's E.U. opening, I spotted also side Swing movements (announcements missed its forecast by a wide margin), I am only expecting Gold to Sell the every rise under these conditions. More specifically with #1,760.80 as the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance (and with the Hourly 1 chart well Supported on #1,752.80) if it breaks I am expecting an aggressive takedown towards #1,730.80 within #2 - #3 sessions, of course if Inflation fears vanish from the markets as they are already priced in most likely. Daily chart is slowly turning Bearish and can Support the downtrend (in my remarks I have mentioned that the Daily chart Bearish confirmation is what I have been waiting for). This #2 - #3 session horizon coincides with today's release of the U.S. Fundamental events, so all the parameters support a speculative downtrend on Gold amplified by a rise on the DX and Bond Yields. Keep in mind that Gold is surely Bearish on both Short and Medium-term, what keeps it ranged is current events on the correlating assets (Fundamentally and DX very likely). I am expecting only uptrend continuation on DX which cannot postpone more the ultimate Gold’s meltdown aiming the last Yearly Low of this cycle (as current configuration is Neutral Gold-wise), but once DX break the psychological barrier / Resistance (June #7 Top resemblance), it is a sign that Gold should be sold on Medium-term towards #1,700.80, and #1,678.80 benchmark.


My position: As I believe that Jackson Hole symposium aftermath may have hawkish outcome for Gold (and Rate talks to skyrocket DX which may continue the relief rally), I am Trading before the news. Daily chart got necessary recovery and priced in a Top which I mentioned many times stating that Bullish bias is not sustainable and Fundamentally, Gold should engage more serious decline as both correlating assets are Trading in Gold's Sellers favour. Therefore, I have engaged my Selling order with #1,753.80 as an key entry point (Targeting #1,730.80 extension).