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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 08-12

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TVC:GOLD   黃金差價合約(美元/盎司)
Gold has been on a clear uptrend since mid Dec following the massive selloff which tested the key supports in sub $1230s. The metal saw renewed demand on account of a very weak US dollar index which is continuing its downtrend after the US Fed’s decision to hike the interest rate. Geo political tensions around the globe are also bolstering the safe haven demand. Once gold crossed its psychological barrier of $1300 it was only going higher. Closing above the support suggests more upside potential for the metal.

On the chart –

Gold has been on a tear rising nearly $90 in matter of 4 weeks broadly due to its asset class and low price compared to newly formed crypto currency asset class due to a giant rally in Bitcoin prices. Gold now looks to be in a bullish run following a long bearish cycle which lasted for more than 4 years. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold seems in a strong bull run, if the support at $1318 is held it can head higher to $1331 where it may find some selling. Once this price point is crossed it can rise to $1345. If this is taken out it can head to the highs of $1358.

2. There are no short trades as gold is in a clear uptrend.

Bullish view – Bulls are taking the party well into the new year with incremental gains seen as a clear head and shoulder pattern is seen on the weekly chart which suggests more upside. It seems the long awaited bull cycle has started and it should take the prices higher towards $1400 and beyond which is confirmed by the monthly chart which suggests a cup formation is in progress ending above $1400. Should the prices continue the uptrend from $1400 it can rally well into $1500 also in the current year itself. Current trend suggests more upside with targets of $1345-$1350.

There is no bearish view until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold is in a strong bullish trend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1321 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1358.
There is no positional short trade unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.
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First bullish target met at $1331

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