Keeping my Buying order / consolidation may be ahead

2021年8月23日

Gold's general commentary: Gold is testing the Hourly 4 chart #1,792.80 - #1,795.80 zone which is currently posing as an first Resistance zone, in identical fashion with the August #6 fractal which is seemingly reproducing (was representing a Support then). A break above it, suggests Bullish bias towards first #1,800.80 psychological barrier and then #1,812.80, while a rejection should re-test the #1,778.80 Support zone. DX got rejected is still on a parabolic downtrend, that’s why Buying pressure on Gold is visible, counterbalanced by the Monthly Low’s on Bond Yields, strongly limiting the downtrend (currently on recovery candles). As a result, I have no other alternative than to keep operating with Buying orders I am Trading on. FOMC speech had positive outcome which will drag Investors to spike up DX so they can secure decent entry near market closing (which was the case last week), and in general / both Technically and Fundamentally I should see #1,800.80 and above next. However, if I have to take a guess what will occur on today’s session, I’d say side Swings / Volatility and later on closing above #1,792.80. It seems that Investors who Bought Gold during the current #1-Month uptrend, closed their positions whenever they heard of FOMC speech. Theoretically, it makes Investors take capital off of riskier assets and place it in safe-haven assets such as Gold.


My position: I engaged my Buying order with #1,784.80 as an entry point, calling for #1,812.80 and above. I cannot rule out another session of consolidation (Price-action within #10 points) as I will choose to trust my model and hold my Buying order. Keep in mind that Jackson Hole symposium speech is catalyst for the week which can make Gold peak the #1,800.80 psychological barrier and then engage more serious decline. My estimations are showing that Gold will end the Q4 below #1,678.80 variance.