Gold market technical analysis and operation strategies

Technical analysis and operation strategy of the gold market (April 7, 2025)
I. Core analysis of technical aspects
The weekly level presents a "dark cloud cover" pattern combination:
The weekly price closed at US$3168.50/ounce (+1.2%), forming a medium-sized negative line with volume (the length of the entity reached 1.8%)
The length of the upper shadow line reached 3.2%, forming a typical "shooting star" pattern feature
The trading volume increased by 47% compared with the previous week, forming a phased top area volume-price divergence pattern
The daily level completed the "island reversal" structure:
Four consecutive negative lines formed a "short arrangement" combination
The trading volume showed a "decreasing shrinkage" feature (the average daily trading volume shrank by 23%)
The price fell below the lower track of the rising channel (US$3076) and the 20-day moving average support.
2. Analysis of key points
Support system:
Short-term support: $2972 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level)
Strong support band: $2956-2938 range (previous intensive trading area)
Technical stop loss: $2920 (200-day moving average support)
Pressure structure:
Short-term pressure: $3055 (60-minute Bollinger band middle track)
Key resistance: $3076 (previous wave peak neckline)
Strategic pressure: $3168 (high point of the year).
3. Trend outlook
Short-term trend:
30-minute MACD indicator bottom divergence triggers technical pullback
Rebound target first looks at $3055 (golden ratio 38.2%)
Breakthrough will test $3076 (downward trend line suppression).
Medium-term outlook:
If it effectively falls below $2956, the target is $2880 (golden ratio 61.8%)
We need to be wary of the suppression brought by the rebound of the US dollar index (DXY breaks through 103.50).
IV. Operation strategy
Short strategy:
Entry range: $3070-3075 (60-minute K-line double top neckline)
Stop loss setting: $3080 (above the intraday high)
Target price: The first target is $3055 (lower Bollinger band), and the second target is $3020 (Fibonacci 61.8%).
Risk control:
Recommended position: no more than 15% of total funds
Dynamic stop profit: move up the stop loss by $15 for every $50 drop
Hedging plan: buy December gold call options (strike price 3080) at the same time
Response to special situations:
If it breaks through $3076, wait and see for the $3105 (Fibonacci 23.6%) stress test
If it quickly breaks through $2956, you can grab the rebound with a light position near $2930
Note: This strategy is based on the current market structure, and actual operations need to be dynamically adjusted in combination with real-time volatility (VIX) and the Fed's policy trends. It is recommended to adopt the "batch position building + rolling stop profit" strategy to strictly control leverage risk. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD