Long $GOOGL, Too much pessimism priced in!

5月12日

- GOOGL is one of the hated FAANG often get hit in the crossfire of misinformation campaign be it Ads related or Search related.

- GOOGL is a verb and has lot of things going in favour. Leader in Quantum Computing, Healthy Growth in Cloud Services, Leader in Adtech, De-facto standard for Searches.

- Gemini is a decent LLM and I am seeing diversification of LLMs in the industry.

- Waymo is leader in autonomous vehicles.

- Google has invested in the future like SpaceX which could easily multiply its investment.

Fundamentally,

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 9.54 | 10.18 | 11.71 | 13.21
EPS% | 18.93% | 6.71% | 15.10% | 12.81%


Base Case (Forward p/e ~ 20 )
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock Price | $190 | $203 | $234 | $264


Bear Case ( Forward p/e ~ 15 )
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock Price | $143 | $152 | $175 | $198

Bull Case ( Forward p/e ~ 25 )
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock Price | $238 | $254 | $292 | $330


Comfortable buying GOOGL < 160 and targeting $210-220 in 1-1.5 year timeframe.

5月12日

註釋

My fair value for GOOGL in 2025 is between $190-205

5月19日

註釋

Stay strong, Stay long on GOOGL ;)

5月19日

註釋

Google is undervalued by 20-25% at $165 as of May, 2025

5月22日

註釋

- Google IO was phenomenal in one word!
- This company is innovation powerhouse! Impressive :)
- GOOGL should trade > $200+