GOOGL Testing Key Support: Breakdown or Bounce from $150?

🧠 Macro Context:
In the wake of the Trump tariff announcement, market-wide risk aversion hit big tech hard. GOOGL is now sitting on a crucial $150 gamma support zone, where both technical and options flow converge. The market is indecisive: is this a base or a trap?

📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)

Market Structure:
* GOOGL has been in a consistent downtrend, rejecting lower highs.
* Attempted recovery stalled at the HVL around $152.50, and now price is back down to support near $150.66.
* The short-term trendline from the late March breakdown has held, acting as dynamic resistance.

Key Levels:
* Support:
* 🔻 $150.66 = Recent session low
* 🔻 $149 = PUT wall / breakdown risk zone
* Resistance:
* 🔺 $152.50 = HVL rejection zone
* 🔺 $155 = First GEX resistance area
* 🔺 $160 = Massive Gamma Wall / Call Resistance
Indicators:
* Selling volume continues to be elevated.
* No real sign of divergence or bottoming pattern yet, but price is coiling near a gamma pivot.

🧨 GEX & Options Flow Analysis
GEX Map (Options GEX [PRO]):
* GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 — heavy short gamma positioning means dealers are sellers into strength, adding fuel to downside momentum if $150 breaks.
* Highest Net Positive GEX / Call Wall sits around:
* $160–162.5 = Gamma resistance cluster
* Put Support:
* $150–149 = Highest PUT density. A break below could trigger dealer hedging flows, accelerating losses.

Options Oscillator:
* IVR 75.3 → Elevated risk expectations.
* IVx 40.6 avg vs 3.48% daily → Volatility is rising but hasn't spiked.
* PUT$ 0% → Either the data is delayed or retail isn't hedging — could mean more downside is possible.

🧭 Trade Scenarios

🐻 Bearish Breakdown Setup:
* Trigger: Clean break below $150.60 with volume
* Target: $149 → $147.50
* Stop: Above $152.50 (tight control)
* Edge: GEX confirms no real support below $149

🐂 Gamma Bounce Setup:
* Trigger: $150 holds and price reclaims $152.50
* Target: $155 → $160 (scalp to swing)
* Stop: $149 breakdown

🔥 Summary:
GOOGL is coiled at the gamma pivot zone ($150). If it breaks, the lack of strong PUT interest and dealer short gamma could trigger a fast move down to $147 or lower. On the flip side, a strong bounce and reclaim of $152.50 can open up a path toward $155–$160.

⚔️ Suggested Plays:
🔻 Buy $150P 0DTE/2DTE on breakdown — ride momentum
🔺 Buy $155C 1-week expiry only if $152.50 is reclaimed with strength
Stay nimble — we’re in a gamma battlefield.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade your own plan, manage your risk, and stay objective.