HDFC Bank long term buy opportunities

2023年5月23日

Draw a pitchfork or a parallel channel with the lows of Feb 2009 at the center of one end, and the approximate price range of Jan 2017 at the center of other end. Why Jan 2017? Because post this the price moved out of the ascending channel with great volatility. So the ascending channel thus created is our conservative rate of growth for HDFC Bank stock price.
Personally I have created a regular pitchfork using the monthly candle closes of around 2015 highs and 2016 lows.

Now if you notice the price moved down with great volatility during March 2023 due to Covid scare, and the beautiful part is that it found support at the bottom end of our conservative ascending channel (talking about the blue line which corresponds to 1 for the pitchfork, the purple and peach colored lines are extensions 1.5 and 2.5. The price just exceeded the blue line by a bit, but if I draw the 1.25 extension, it is perfectly where the price made the low amidst extreme volatility on March 2020. Magic!

Notice the way price treats this conservative ascending channel post March 2020 as well. It's beautifully respected in my opinion.

Should price come back down with great volatility, I would expect it to at least show good reaction on the bottom end of the conservative ascending channel (blue line) or the 1.25 extension of the pitchfork!
Now again, I don't know if price would come down, but should it come down near that region, I would expect a reaction as I have explained above.

Now looking at volume profile of price between May 2017 and Oct 2020, we can see that the POC lies around 1058. and looking at the volume distribution in this price range, we see that between 920 and 1150, we have a market acceptable price of the stock (just another way of saying Value area). Should price come down and get accepted within this range, then it could rotate down to the lows of the range at 920.
But, price getting accepted in this range is different from price making a fast move somewhere into the range and going back again. For acceptance the price needs to linger around below this range high and gradually it could go down to the range low.

Now, price could just find support on top of this old range, and consolidate there, while dipping into the range touching the POC and moving back out.

Also, the golden pocket of the fib pull from March 2020 low to all time high, shows the golden pocket in between 1077 and 1120.
The fib pull from 2009 low to all time high, also shows the 0.382 in the same region.

We also have the conservative ascending channel in the same region, and depending on with what volatility the price approaches the ascending channel, I would look for reaction on the top, middle or bottom of the channel.

Now, I don't know if price would ever go that far down, but should it go down there I know it's a region of support and won't panic because I am prepared. Could it go further down from there also? Yes absolutely, depending on the macroeconomic environment and world events like the war in Europe, things could go south. Could price just start making new all time highs from tomorrow and we never even get to 1400 again? Yes that's also possible. We cannot predict where price will go from here. We can only try to predict what could happen if price goes to certain levels. We can't predict that for all levels either, only for certain levels of high confluence.

Final verdict, if price goes to 1050-1120, I would be eager to buy, barring any extreme world events.