LRCUSD is rubbing her eyes - Update on LRCUSD
已更新
• LRCUSD’s recent price action has been enlightening. This is just an update.
• Some background and FA first. As BTCUSD crossed her 1.618 Fib of the crypto winter before this bull run, besides DCAing BTC, I started hunting for altcoins to fill my bag in preparation for the eventual ETH pump towards the end of this bullrun. ETH is a much safer investment than altcoins, and the potential ROI makes much more sense than BTC, so my overall strategy is to buy alts related to ETH during the dip, and then swing to ETH when the latter breaks key resistance levels towards the end of this bullrun. ETH is an excellent technology, but current gas prices are exorbitant. LRC’s zkRollup Layer2 helps solve this issue and path the way for ETH’s eventual pump. It was a no brainer to fill my bag with LRC in Jul’21.
• Anyway, back to TA, a brief summary.
• LRCUSD reached her peak during the previous bullrun at the 5.764 Fib level measured from top to bottom of her mid-cycle consolidation phase.
• *Assuming* LRCUSD will not dump to 0.17ish levels again, the 5.764 Fib level measured from the LRCUSD’s 1st peak to the bottom of her mid-cycle consolidation phase will bring us to approximately $4.5.
• LRCUSD has been in a parallel channel since Mar’20. *Assuming* LRCUSD reaches $4.5 and *assuming* this will be reached at the topline of this parallel channel, $4.5 will be reached around 14 Jan’22. This aligns with my gut sense that this bullrun will end by Mar’22 and the observation that LRCUSD leads the market, peaking before BTCUSD and ETHUSD (the latter reason is yet another good reason to invest in LRC and then swinging to ETH).
• LRCUSD’s recent price action has been interesting. She does not acquiesce herself to momentum indicators that well (or maybe I’m just bad at short-term trading), but she has obeyed Fib levels quite well. *Assuming* LRCUSD does not dump below the 1.618 Fib level of $1.05, and *assuming* we have just witness Wave 4, the 5.764 Fib level from top to bottom of Wave 4 will bring us to $4.9, a level very near the previous $4.5. *Assuming* LRCUSD reaches $4.9 at the topline of the parallel channel will bring us to LRCUSD reaching this level at around 6 Feb’22, which is reasonable given our assumptions regarding LRCUSD leading and this bullrun ending by Mar’22.
• Watch RSI levels too. It is not surprising that LRCUSD is consolidating after hitting a daily RSI of 90%, as she has done so throughout her history. However, LRCUSD’s price action has always been extremely violent, and it is too risky to engage in short-term trades (or at least if you are as bad as short-term trades as me). Trade macro, and hodl till LRCUSD reaches she reaches weekly RSI of 90%, where LRCUSD historically peaks during her bullrun.
• In summary, **the range of $4.5 by 14 Jan’22 to $4.9 by 6 Feb’22 gives us something to shoot for, **watch the weekly RSI level of 90% to swing to ETH, and **this thesis is needs updating if LRCUSD breaks below $1.05, or **LRCUSD breaks the trendline linking her peaks on 12 Feb'21, 12 May'21 and 29 Aug'21, or **LRCUSD breaks below $1.05, or **LRCUSD breaks below the parallel channel.
• Some background and FA first. As BTCUSD crossed her 1.618 Fib of the crypto winter before this bull run, besides DCAing BTC, I started hunting for altcoins to fill my bag in preparation for the eventual ETH pump towards the end of this bullrun. ETH is a much safer investment than altcoins, and the potential ROI makes much more sense than BTC, so my overall strategy is to buy alts related to ETH during the dip, and then swing to ETH when the latter breaks key resistance levels towards the end of this bullrun. ETH is an excellent technology, but current gas prices are exorbitant. LRC’s zkRollup Layer2 helps solve this issue and path the way for ETH’s eventual pump. It was a no brainer to fill my bag with LRC in Jul’21.
• Anyway, back to TA, a brief summary.
• LRCUSD reached her peak during the previous bullrun at the 5.764 Fib level measured from top to bottom of her mid-cycle consolidation phase.
• *Assuming* LRCUSD will not dump to 0.17ish levels again, the 5.764 Fib level measured from the LRCUSD’s 1st peak to the bottom of her mid-cycle consolidation phase will bring us to approximately $4.5.
• LRCUSD has been in a parallel channel since Mar’20. *Assuming* LRCUSD reaches $4.5 and *assuming* this will be reached at the topline of this parallel channel, $4.5 will be reached around 14 Jan’22. This aligns with my gut sense that this bullrun will end by Mar’22 and the observation that LRCUSD leads the market, peaking before BTCUSD and ETHUSD (the latter reason is yet another good reason to invest in LRC and then swinging to ETH).
• LRCUSD’s recent price action has been interesting. She does not acquiesce herself to momentum indicators that well (or maybe I’m just bad at short-term trading), but she has obeyed Fib levels quite well. *Assuming* LRCUSD does not dump below the 1.618 Fib level of $1.05, and *assuming* we have just witness Wave 4, the 5.764 Fib level from top to bottom of Wave 4 will bring us to $4.9, a level very near the previous $4.5. *Assuming* LRCUSD reaches $4.9 at the topline of the parallel channel will bring us to LRCUSD reaching this level at around 6 Feb’22, which is reasonable given our assumptions regarding LRCUSD leading and this bullrun ending by Mar’22.
• Watch RSI levels too. It is not surprising that LRCUSD is consolidating after hitting a daily RSI of 90%, as she has done so throughout her history. However, LRCUSD’s price action has always been extremely violent, and it is too risky to engage in short-term trades (or at least if you are as bad as short-term trades as me). Trade macro, and hodl till LRCUSD reaches she reaches weekly RSI of 90%, where LRCUSD historically peaks during her bullrun.
• In summary, **the range of $4.5 by 14 Jan’22 to $4.9 by 6 Feb’22 gives us something to shoot for, **watch the weekly RSI level of 90% to swing to ETH, and **this thesis is needs updating if LRCUSD breaks below $1.05, or **LRCUSD breaks the trendline linking her peaks on 12 Feb'21, 12 May'21 and 29 Aug'21, or **LRCUSD breaks below $1.05, or **LRCUSD breaks below the parallel channel.
註釋
Addendum:• The truth of the Loopring-GameStop rumours is largely irrelevant to the above thesis.
• Fundamentally, the collaboration is irrelevant to Loopring's importance to Ethereum.
• Technically, the collaboration might affect the relative strength of LRC's pump (I was not aware of the collaboration, hence my initial underestimation of Wave 3). However, there is nil substantial change to the original thesis.
註釋
LRCUSD is pumping too quickly. I would not mind if it consolidates for several more days. In fact, I would not mind if it consolidates for several more weeks.註釋
• LRCUSD has woken up!• Note how well the Fib levels have served as support/resistance on the daily.
• Note also the daily and weekly RSIs. Do not be deterministic about TPs. DCA out based on momentum indicators (eg RSI levels).
• Be greedy, but do not be blinded by greed. The focus should be on derisking.
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