When is a trend unstable?
已更新
Whenever I want to FOMO buy something that's gone way up, it's always a good idea to check out the acceleration of the advance.
An easy way to do this is to use rays to draw trendlines. If the trend has accelerated without retesting, forcing you to draw a new one, then that generally reflects instability. The more rays you have to draw, the more unstable price is.
My rule of thumb is don't buy anything after more than 3 accelerations. (green, yellow, red). If price trend is at 4 or more, start looking for shorts. Especially if you can see declining volume on the rise - then demand is weakening.
In this case there's major resistance at the red dotted line. That's where I'll close my longs and start shorting. If we get there...
Trade is invalidated if price closes above the red line, preferably with some volume.
PS - learned this from djthistle01, you should follow him.
An easy way to do this is to use rays to draw trendlines. If the trend has accelerated without retesting, forcing you to draw a new one, then that generally reflects instability. The more rays you have to draw, the more unstable price is.
My rule of thumb is don't buy anything after more than 3 accelerations. (green, yellow, red). If price trend is at 4 or more, start looking for shorts. Especially if you can see declining volume on the rise - then demand is weakening.
In this case there's major resistance at the red dotted line. That's where I'll close my longs and start shorting. If we get there...
Trade is invalidated if price closes above the red line, preferably with some volume.
PS - learned this from djthistle01, you should follow him.
註釋
closed longs as we've had a daily close outside the last trend line. this could also just be drawn as a parabola (same concept).going to scale in short here
交易進行
strong reaction off resistance at .0143 is making me re-think this. if we'd run out of steam, then we should have stayed below the .014724 level. closing back above it is not a good sign for being bearish here.still leaving this open as a hedge for now, since my long/short ratio is currently about 3 to 1. although I will close my LTC/USD short.
XBT closing above $4080 (bitmex) will make me go full long.
proceed with caution
交易進行
Patience has been key here. Glad I left it open! Stop moved to breakeven交易進行
should have taken profit... this has been bought up massively. if it closes above the highest support, i'm closing this and going full long. bodes well for alt season!!
交易結束：達到停損點
well, LTC got bought up so hard it my stop. trade closed. could have taken a decent profit on this but didn't. lesson learned for next time.
on the bright side, this much buy volume stepping in is extremely bullish.
going full long
註釋
no loss on this due to pulling stop forward. but i lost nearly all the potential profit
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