LTC/BTC Still bullish for Swing Trades and Long Term

2018年3月27日

In our last TA, we were going into the weekend with a Head and Shoulders look, but it was uncertain whether it was going to be a short term H&S or a long term H&S. We didn't hit the mark for the bottom of the inverse right shoulder (around 153), but we did hit the mark for the top of H&S right shoulder (164 range) and the Sunday/Monday drop happened.

Again, in previous TA, mentioned that IF H&S formed, we could see a drop to the bottom of the long term symmetrical triangle (Black Lines) around 146. Expecting the bounce, I personally jumped in at 148, 146, and 144. Why did we go below the triangle?

1. As I mentioned in previous TA, market cap is small compared to traditional financial markets; therefore the whales can manipulate pricing...and this often occurs when patterns are completing. My "idea" was wrong by a couple of dollars as I felt we would see the bounce before we hit the bottom of the triangle. Just the opposite happened. It completed and dropped below the triangle. Hindsight is 20/20. It appears they (the whales) expected buying at 146, so they sold off to take it lower. Recommend always keeping some fiat on hand, so was fine with picking up a few 144-146's and prepared to pick up more around 138 (bottom on March 18th).

2. Over the past month, a company called LitePay has supposedly been working on developing a system for using Litecoin as a method of functional currency in the retail space with efforts to align with traditional merchant processors...with backing from the Litecoin Foundation, and organization who received a considerable amount of Litecoins by gift from Charlie Lee, creator of Litecoin. The Litecoin Foundation sent out a press release that LitePay was shutting down, and this Bad News most likely contributed to a steeper drop. The LTC/BTC ratio took a hit on Monday as a result.

3. As you most likely know, most cryptocurrencies follow Bitcoin's lead, and the bottom of the BTC symmetrical triangle was a little lower than the LTC triangle. We hit what I believe is the BTC symmetrical triangle on Tuesday morning, so really hoping for a bounce.

Looking ahead, I still see the potential for a bounce to the 165 range (ATH .786 Fib range and top of downtrend channel). Would love to see a breakout to 175 (strong resistance level). Getting out of the downchannel would be a strong statement of confidence and possibly get some FOMO to come in. If this does occur, and we scratch and claw and fight through 75, will start focusing more on the symmetrical triangle as swing trade opportunities until mid April when the triangle converges.

As an investor with significant % of holdings in LTC, these patterns & ideas have a lot of hope included. There is a concern that a crash could happen as well. If we don't get back in the triangle and breakout as it comes to a close, the entire cyrpto market could see a continued decline with LTC resistance points at 128, 100 level (downtrend channel), and 95 (0 Fib on ATH run in December). Additional FUD is the convergence of the triangle on April 15th (US tax time). If selloff to pay taxes on gains from 2017 is in play, it takes a few days for funds to get to bank accts, so this could be happening over the next week.

Bottom line, if you don't believe in the future of cryptocurrency as a viable World currency, take your losses up to 50% and get out. Then if it goes to 0 you'll feel like you did the right thing. If you do believe in crypto, feel fortunate you got in before the masses; & look back on 2018 Q1 as a time where your intestinal fortitude was tested, you HODL'ed, and you were blessed by a great investment. I'll see you at the top (or bottom). From the outside looking in, I feel the LTC team is full of intelligent visionaries who are doing the right things to be standing at the peak when adoption occurs

This idea is only an idea, not investment advice. Invest at your own risk, and don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Good luck to all!