Forget all of the fancy and extra analysis. I think it's best to keep it as simple as possible and use a balance of chart trending plus fundamental events when looking at these plays. I have 3 recent purchases of Litecoin. First at $284, then $245, and finally at $237. I'm going to buy at least 4 more LTC coins, but I'm taking my time. I'm a little gun-shy after watching the price drop after each of my buys, but it won't matter in the long run. If you are HODL-ing Litecoin, I think it is relatively safe to enter anywhere in this range.
Share your thoughts, and please add some insight if you have some!